Recent ECB staff projections released September 10 place euro area real GDP growth at 0.9% for 2026, revised up 0.1 percentage point from June amid stronger-than-expected Q2 expansion of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and evidence of resilience to Middle East-related energy price pressures. This official outlook, alongside Italy’s prime minister signaling 1% growth and France’s downward revision to 0.5%, anchors trader consensus around the 1.0-2.0% bin at 66.5% implied probability. Persistent inflation above 3% and geopolitical risks keep the 0-1.0% outcome at 31.4% viable, while the market prices limited scope for outcomes outside these ranges given subdued export momentum and modest domestic demand. Key near-term catalysts include September inflation releases and the next ECB policy meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026
1.0-2.0% 67%
0-1.0% 31.4%
<0% <1%
3.0-4.0% <1%
$41,913 Vol.
$41,913 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
<0%
<1%
0-1.0%
31%
1.0-2.0%
67%
2.0-3.0%
<1%
3.0-4.0%
<1%
4.0-5.0%
<1%
5.0-6.0%
<1%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0%+
<1%
1.0-2.0% 67%
0-1.0% 31.4%
<0% <1%
3.0-4.0% <1%
$41,913 Vol.
$41,913 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
<0%
$2,498 Vol.
<1%
0-1.0%
$13,064 Vol.
31%
1.0-2.0%
$11,312 Vol.
67%
2.0-3.0%
$1,999 Vol.
<1%
3.0-4.0%
$1,934 Vol.
<1%
4.0-5.0%
$3,059 Vol.
<1%
5.0-6.0%
$2,011 Vol.
<1%
6.0-7.0%
$3,481 Vol.
<1%
7.0%+
$2,554 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ECB staff projections released September 10 place euro area real GDP growth at 0.9% for 2026, revised up 0.1 percentage point from June amid stronger-than-expected Q2 expansion of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and evidence of resilience to Middle East-related energy price pressures. This official outlook, alongside Italy’s prime minister signaling 1% growth and France’s downward revision to 0.5%, anchors trader consensus around the 1.0-2.0% bin at 66.5% implied probability. Persistent inflation above 3% and geopolitical risks keep the 0-1.0% outcome at 31.4% viable, while the market prices limited scope for outcomes outside these ranges given subdued export momentum and modest domestic demand. Key near-term catalysts include September inflation releases and the next ECB policy meeting.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$41,913End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ECB staff projections released September 10 place euro area real GDP growth at 0.9% for 2026, revised up 0.1 percentage point from June amid stronger-than-expected Q2 expansion of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and evidence of resilience to Middle East-related energy price pressures. This official outlook, alongside Italy’s prime minister signaling 1% growth and France’s downward revision to 0.5%, anchors trader consensus around the 1.0-2.0% bin at 66.5% implied probability. Persistent inflation above 3% and geopolitical risks keep the 0-1.0% outcome at 31.4% viable, while the market prices limited scope for outcomes outside these ranges given subdued export momentum and modest domestic demand. Key near-term catalysts include September inflation releases and the next ECB policy meeting.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$41,913End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent ECB staff projections released September 10 place euro area real GDP growth at 0.9% for 2026, revised up 0.1 percentage point from June amid stronger-than-expected Q2 expansion of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and evidence of resilience to Middle East-related energy price pressures. This official outlook, alongside Italy’s prime minister signaling 1% growth and France’s downward revision to 0.5%, anchors trader consensus around the 1.0-2.0% bin at 66.5% implied probability. Persistent inflation above 3% and geopolitical risks keep the 0-1.0% outcome at 31.4% viable, while the market prices limited scope for outcomes outside these ranges given subdued export momentum and modest domestic demand. Key near-term catalysts include September inflation releases and the next ECB policy meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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