**UK Annual GDP Growth 2026** markets price a strong consensus around moderate expansion, with the 1-2% outcome carrying an 87.2% implied probability. Official projections anchor this view: the Bank of England’s July 2026 Monetary Policy Report and the OBR both center 2026 GDP growth at 1.1%, while the IMF’s July Article IV consultation projects 1.0%. Recent ONS data showed solid first-half momentum—0.6% QoQ in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2—yet analysts expect a slowdown in H2 as the Middle East conflict elevates energy prices, compresses real household incomes, and tightens financial conditions. Independent forecaster surveys compiled by HM Treasury in August also average 1.1%, reflecting subdued business surveys, a widening output gap, and limited upside from net exports or investment. These factors leave only marginal probabilities for sub-1% or above-2% outcomes, consistent with historical base rates around the UK’s estimated potential growth of 1.4–1.5%. Key near-term catalysts include the September 2026 ONS releases and any further energy-price volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1-2% 87.2%
0-1% 12%
3-4% 1.4%
<0 <1%
$83,224 Vol.
$83,224 Vol.
Feb 11, 2027
<0
1%
0-1%
12%
1-2%
87%
2-3%
1%
3-4%
1%
4-5%
<1%
5%+
<1%
1-2% 87.2%
0-1% 12%
3-4% 1.4%
<0 <1%
$83,224 Vol.
$83,224 Vol.
Feb 11, 2027
<0
$11,936 Vol.
1%
0-1%
$20,120 Vol.
12%
1-2%
$30,065 Vol.
87%
2-3%
$4,696 Vol.
1%
3-4%
$3,628 Vol.
1%
4-5%
$8,775 Vol.
<1%
5%+
$4,006 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.**UK Annual GDP Growth 2026** markets price a strong consensus around moderate expansion, with the 1-2% outcome carrying an 87.2% implied probability. Official projections anchor this view: the Bank of England’s July 2026 Monetary Policy Report and the OBR both center 2026 GDP growth at 1.1%, while the IMF’s July Article IV consultation projects 1.0%. Recent ONS data showed solid first-half momentum—0.6% QoQ in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2—yet analysts expect a slowdown in H2 as the Middle East conflict elevates energy prices, compresses real household incomes, and tightens financial conditions. Independent forecaster surveys compiled by HM Treasury in August also average 1.1%, reflecting subdued business surveys, a widening output gap, and limited upside from net exports or investment. These factors leave only marginal probabilities for sub-1% or above-2% outcomes, consistent with historical base rates around the UK’s estimated potential growth of 1.4–1.5%. Key near-term catalysts include the September 2026 ONS releases and any further energy-price volatility.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$83,224End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.**UK Annual GDP Growth 2026** markets price a strong consensus around moderate expansion, with the 1-2% outcome carrying an 87.2% implied probability. Official projections anchor this view: the Bank of England’s July 2026 Monetary Policy Report and the OBR both center 2026 GDP growth at 1.1%, while the IMF’s July Article IV consultation projects 1.0%. Recent ONS data showed solid first-half momentum—0.6% QoQ in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2—yet analysts expect a slowdown in H2 as the Middle East conflict elevates energy prices, compresses real household incomes, and tightens financial conditions. Independent forecaster surveys compiled by HM Treasury in August also average 1.1%, reflecting subdued business surveys, a widening output gap, and limited upside from net exports or investment. These factors leave only marginal probabilities for sub-1% or above-2% outcomes, consistent with historical base rates around the UK’s estimated potential growth of 1.4–1.5%. Key near-term catalysts include the September 2026 ONS releases and any further energy-price volatility.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$83,224End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**UK Annual GDP Growth 2026** markets price a strong consensus around moderate expansion, with the 1-2% outcome carrying an 87.2% implied probability. Official projections anchor this view: the Bank of England’s July 2026 Monetary Policy Report and the OBR both center 2026 GDP growth at 1.1%, while the IMF’s July Article IV consultation projects 1.0%. Recent ONS data showed solid first-half momentum—0.6% QoQ in Q1 and 0.4% in Q2—yet analysts expect a slowdown in H2 as the Middle East conflict elevates energy prices, compresses real household incomes, and tightens financial conditions. Independent forecaster surveys compiled by HM Treasury in August also average 1.1%, reflecting subdued business surveys, a widening output gap, and limited upside from net exports or investment. These factors leave only marginal probabilities for sub-1% or above-2% outcomes, consistent with historical base rates around the UK’s estimated potential growth of 1.4–1.5%. Key near-term catalysts include the September 2026 ONS releases and any further energy-price volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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