China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5 percent, combined with first-half data showing 4.7 percent year-on-year expansion (including a softer 4.3 percent in Q2), has anchored trader expectations within the 4.0–5.0 percent band. Forecasts from the IMF (4.6 percent) and World Bank (4.4 percent) cluster in the same range, reflecting resilient exports of high-tech and AI-related goods that offset weak domestic demand, property-sector drag, and subdued fixed-asset investment. Recent August trade figures, with exports rising 25 percent year-on-year, have reinforced this positioning by highlighting external support amid limited fiscal stimulus signals. The market's heavy weighting on this interval reflects broad alignment between government targets, incoming data releases, and institutional projections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.0–5.0% 90%
5.0–6.0% 5.9%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
8.0–9.0% 1.0%
$900,187 Vol.
$900,187 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
90%
5.0–6.0%
6%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%+
1%
4.0–5.0% 90%
5.0–6.0% 5.9%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
8.0–9.0% 1.0%
$900,187 Vol.
$900,187 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
<1.0%
$68,058 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$75,379 Vol.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$45,830 Vol.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$81,476 Vol.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$223,029 Vol.
90%
5.0–6.0%
$80,873 Vol.
6%
6.0-7.0%
$87,943 Vol.
<1%
7.0–8.0%
$65,353 Vol.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$54,761 Vol.
1%
9.0%+
$117,484 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5 percent, combined with first-half data showing 4.7 percent year-on-year expansion (including a softer 4.3 percent in Q2), has anchored trader expectations within the 4.0–5.0 percent band. Forecasts from the IMF (4.6 percent) and World Bank (4.4 percent) cluster in the same range, reflecting resilient exports of high-tech and AI-related goods that offset weak domestic demand, property-sector drag, and subdued fixed-asset investment. Recent August trade figures, with exports rising 25 percent year-on-year, have reinforced this positioning by highlighting external support amid limited fiscal stimulus signals. The market's heavy weighting on this interval reflects broad alignment between government targets, incoming data releases, and institutional projections.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$900,187End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5 percent, combined with first-half data showing 4.7 percent year-on-year expansion (including a softer 4.3 percent in Q2), has anchored trader expectations within the 4.0–5.0 percent band. Forecasts from the IMF (4.6 percent) and World Bank (4.4 percent) cluster in the same range, reflecting resilient exports of high-tech and AI-related goods that offset weak domestic demand, property-sector drag, and subdued fixed-asset investment. Recent August trade figures, with exports rising 25 percent year-on-year, have reinforced this positioning by highlighting external support amid limited fiscal stimulus signals. The market's heavy weighting on this interval reflects broad alignment between government targets, incoming data releases, and institutional projections.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$900,187End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5–5 percent, combined with first-half data showing 4.7 percent year-on-year expansion (including a softer 4.3 percent in Q2), has anchored trader expectations within the 4.0–5.0 percent band. Forecasts from the IMF (4.6 percent) and World Bank (4.4 percent) cluster in the same range, reflecting resilient exports of high-tech and AI-related goods that offset weak domestic demand, property-sector drag, and subdued fixed-asset investment. Recent August trade figures, with exports rising 25 percent year-on-year, have reinforced this positioning by highlighting external support amid limited fiscal stimulus signals. The market's heavy weighting on this interval reflects broad alignment between government targets, incoming data releases, and institutional projections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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