Recent U.S. economic data underpin the 84.2% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.6% annualized real GDP expansion in Q1 2026, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 2025, supported by exports, business investment, and consumer spending. Professional forecasters, including the Philadelphia Fed Survey and CBO projections, anticipate full-year growth of 2.0–2.5%, reflecting resilient labor markets with unemployment near 4.3–4.4% and continued AI-driven capital spending that offsets moderating consumer demand and elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions. Core inflation has firmed but remains manageable, while upcoming Q2 GDP releases and FOMC communications represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust these consensus expectations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Crecimiento negativo del PIB en 2026?
¿Crecimiento negativo del PIB en 2026?
Sí
$27,733 Vol.
$27,733 Vol.
29 ene 2027
Sí
$27,733 Vol.
$27,733 Vol.
29 ene 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data underpin the 84.2% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.6% annualized real GDP expansion in Q1 2026, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 2025, supported by exports, business investment, and consumer spending. Professional forecasters, including the Philadelphia Fed Survey and CBO projections, anticipate full-year growth of 2.0–2.5%, reflecting resilient labor markets with unemployment near 4.3–4.4% and continued AI-driven capital spending that offsets moderating consumer demand and elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions. Core inflation has firmed but remains manageable, while upcoming Q2 GDP releases and FOMC communications represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust these consensus expectations.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volumen
$27,733Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data underpin the 84.2% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.6% annualized real GDP expansion in Q1 2026, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 2025, supported by exports, business investment, and consumer spending. Professional forecasters, including the Philadelphia Fed Survey and CBO projections, anticipate full-year growth of 2.0–2.5%, reflecting resilient labor markets with unemployment near 4.3–4.4% and continued AI-driven capital spending that offsets moderating consumer demand and elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions. Core inflation has firmed but remains manageable, while upcoming Q2 GDP releases and FOMC communications represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust these consensus expectations.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volumen
$27,733Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data underpin the 84.2% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.6% annualized real GDP expansion in Q1 2026, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 2025, supported by exports, business investment, and consumer spending. Professional forecasters, including the Philadelphia Fed Survey and CBO projections, anticipate full-year growth of 2.0–2.5%, reflecting resilient labor markets with unemployment near 4.3–4.4% and continued AI-driven capital spending that offsets moderating consumer demand and elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions. Core inflation has firmed but remains manageable, while upcoming Q2 GDP releases and FOMC communications represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust these consensus expectations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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