Robust institutional and private forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied odds against negative U.S. real GDP growth for 2026, with the Federal Reserve’s June median projection at 2.2% Q4/Q4 and consensus estimates from sources like U.S. Bank and S&P Global clustered around 2.0–2.2%. Resilient consumer spending, AI-related business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.3% have sustained positive quarterly expansions through mid-2026, including a Q2 reading of 1.5% annualized that was revised upward on stronger underlying demand. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, reflects these fundamentals and the low base-rate likelihood of full-year contraction. Tail risks remain from escalation in geopolitical tensions or abrupt policy shifts that could tip the economy into recession, though current data show no such momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2% chance
$33,280 Vol.
$33,280 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
2% chance
$33,280 Vol.
$33,280 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust institutional and private forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied odds against negative U.S. real GDP growth for 2026, with the Federal Reserve’s June median projection at 2.2% Q4/Q4 and consensus estimates from sources like U.S. Bank and S&P Global clustered around 2.0–2.2%. Resilient consumer spending, AI-related business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.3% have sustained positive quarterly expansions through mid-2026, including a Q2 reading of 1.5% annualized that was revised upward on stronger underlying demand. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, reflects these fundamentals and the low base-rate likelihood of full-year contraction. Tail risks remain from escalation in geopolitical tensions or abrupt policy shifts that could tip the economy into recession, though current data show no such momentum.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$33,280End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust institutional and private forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied odds against negative U.S. real GDP growth for 2026, with the Federal Reserve’s June median projection at 2.2% Q4/Q4 and consensus estimates from sources like U.S. Bank and S&P Global clustered around 2.0–2.2%. Resilient consumer spending, AI-related business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.3% have sustained positive quarterly expansions through mid-2026, including a Q2 reading of 1.5% annualized that was revised upward on stronger underlying demand. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, reflects these fundamentals and the low base-rate likelihood of full-year contraction. Tail risks remain from escalation in geopolitical tensions or abrupt policy shifts that could tip the economy into recession, though current data show no such momentum.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$33,280End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust institutional and private forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied odds against negative U.S. real GDP growth for 2026, with the Federal Reserve’s June median projection at 2.2% Q4/Q4 and consensus estimates from sources like U.S. Bank and S&P Global clustered around 2.0–2.2%. Resilient consumer spending, AI-related business investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.3% have sustained positive quarterly expansions through mid-2026, including a Q2 reading of 1.5% annualized that was revised upward on stronger underlying demand. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at risk, reflects these fundamentals and the low base-rate likelihood of full-year contraction. Tail risks remain from escalation in geopolitical tensions or abrupt policy shifts that could tip the economy into recession, though current data show no such momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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