The July 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI printed at 55.6, landing squarely in the 55.0–55.9 bucket that commands 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The 2.3-point jump from June’s 53.3 reflected broad-based acceleration: the production index surged to 58.5 (highest since late 2021), new orders held above 56, and the employment sub-index returned to expansion at 52.8 for the first time in 33 months. Traders cite AI-driven capital spending, pre-tariff inventory builds, and resilient domestic demand as the key supports that lifted the headline well above the 54.0 consensus. With the official release now complete and the figure confirmed within the narrow band, only an unforeseen revision or data restatement could alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated55.0–55.9 100.0%
<49.0 <1%
49.0–49.9 <1%
50.0–50.9 <1%
$32,153 Vol.
$32,153 Vol.
Aug 3, 2026
<49.0
No
49.0–49.9
No
50.0–50.9
No
51.0–51.9
No
52.0–52.9
No
53.0–53.9
No
54.0–54.9
No
55.0–55.9
Yes
56.0–56.9
No
57.0+
No
55.0–55.9 100.0%
<49.0 <1%
49.0–49.9 <1%
50.0–50.9 <1%
$32,153 Vol.
$32,153 Vol.
Aug 3, 2026
<49.0
$2,951 Vol.
No
49.0–49.9
$1,125 Vol.
No
50.0–50.9
$895 Vol.
No
51.0–51.9
$5,416 Vol.
No
52.0–52.9
$4,886 Vol.
No
53.0–53.9
$8,926 Vol.
No
54.0–54.9
$3,877 Vol.
No
55.0–55.9
$2,290 Vol.
Yes
56.0–56.9
$778 Vol.
No
57.0+
$1,008 Vol.
No
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for July 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on August 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The July 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI printed at 55.6, landing squarely in the 55.0–55.9 bucket that commands 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The 2.3-point jump from June’s 53.3 reflected broad-based acceleration: the production index surged to 58.5 (highest since late 2021), new orders held above 56, and the employment sub-index returned to expansion at 52.8 for the first time in 33 months. Traders cite AI-driven capital spending, pre-tariff inventory builds, and resilient domestic demand as the key supports that lifted the headline well above the 54.0 consensus. With the official release now complete and the figure confirmed within the narrow band, only an unforeseen revision or data restatement could alter the outcome.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for July 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on August 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for July 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on August 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 12:57 PM ET
Volume
$32,153End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 12:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for July 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on August 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The July 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI printed at 55.6, landing squarely in the 55.0–55.9 bucket that commands 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The 2.3-point jump from June’s 53.3 reflected broad-based acceleration: the production index surged to 58.5 (highest since late 2021), new orders held above 56, and the employment sub-index returned to expansion at 52.8 for the first time in 33 months. Traders cite AI-driven capital spending, pre-tariff inventory builds, and resilient domestic demand as the key supports that lifted the headline well above the 54.0 consensus. With the official release now complete and the figure confirmed within the narrow band, only an unforeseen revision or data restatement could alter the outcome.
This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for July 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on August 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for July 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on August 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$32,153End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 12:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The July 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI printed at 55.6, landing squarely in the 55.0–55.9 bucket that commands 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The 2.3-point jump from June’s 53.3 reflected broad-based acceleration: the production index surged to 58.5 (highest since late 2021), new orders held above 56, and the employment sub-index returned to expansion at 52.8 for the first time in 33 months. Traders cite AI-driven capital spending, pre-tariff inventory builds, and resilient domestic demand as the key supports that lifted the headline well above the 54.0 consensus. With the official release now complete and the figure confirmed within the narrow band, only an unforeseen revision or data restatement could alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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