Recent July ISM Services PMI data at 54.1, marginally below consensus and little changed from June, anchors trader expectations for the August reading amid a 25-month expansion streak. Stable business activity and new orders, alongside resilient services demand, support implied odds clustered around the mid-50s, while softening employment and persistent price pressures from petroleum and tariffs introduce downside risks. The wide dispersion across bins—from sub-50 contraction odds near 28% to 58+ expansion near 30%—reflects uncertainty over August labor market signals, inflation trajectory, and any policy or geopolitical shifts before the September 3 release. Market-implied probabilities thus capture balanced sentiment between continuity in expansion and potential softening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<50.0 27%
56.0–56.9 27%
57.0–57.9 27%
51.0–51.9 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
<50.0
27%
50.0–50.9
21%
51.0–51.9
26%
52.0–52.9
24%
53.0–53.9
26%
54.0–54.9
24%
55.0–55.9
24%
56.0–56.9
27%
57.0–57.9
27%
58.0+
26%
<50.0 27%
56.0–56.9 27%
57.0–57.9 27%
51.0–51.9 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
<50.0
$0 Vol.
27%
50.0–50.9
$0 Vol.
21%
51.0–51.9
$0 Vol.
26%
52.0–52.9
$0 Vol.
24%
53.0–53.9
$0 Vol.
26%
54.0–54.9
$0 Vol.
24%
55.0–55.9
$0 Vol.
24%
56.0–56.9
$0 Vol.
27%
57.0–57.9
$0 Vol.
27%
58.0+
$20 Vol.
26%
This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July ISM Services PMI data at 54.1, marginally below consensus and little changed from June, anchors trader expectations for the August reading amid a 25-month expansion streak. Stable business activity and new orders, alongside resilient services demand, support implied odds clustered around the mid-50s, while softening employment and persistent price pressures from petroleum and tariffs introduce downside risks. The wide dispersion across bins—from sub-50 contraction odds near 28% to 58+ expansion near 30%—reflects uncertainty over August labor market signals, inflation trajectory, and any policy or geopolitical shifts before the September 3 release. Market-implied probabilities thus capture balanced sentiment between continuity in expansion and potential softening.
This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ETThis is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July ISM Services PMI data at 54.1, marginally below consensus and little changed from June, anchors trader expectations for the August reading amid a 25-month expansion streak. Stable business activity and new orders, alongside resilient services demand, support implied odds clustered around the mid-50s, while softening employment and persistent price pressures from petroleum and tariffs introduce downside risks. The wide dispersion across bins—from sub-50 contraction odds near 28% to 58+ expansion near 30%—reflects uncertainty over August labor market signals, inflation trajectory, and any policy or geopolitical shifts before the September 3 release. Market-implied probabilities thus capture balanced sentiment between continuity in expansion and potential softening.
This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$20End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ETRecent July ISM Services PMI data at 54.1, marginally below consensus and little changed from June, anchors trader expectations for the August reading amid a 25-month expansion streak. Stable business activity and new orders, alongside resilient services demand, support implied odds clustered around the mid-50s, while softening employment and persistent price pressures from petroleum and tariffs introduce downside risks. The wide dispersion across bins—from sub-50 contraction odds near 28% to 58+ expansion near 30%—reflects uncertainty over August labor market signals, inflation trajectory, and any policy or geopolitical shifts before the September 3 release. Market-implied probabilities thus capture balanced sentiment between continuity in expansion and potential softening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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