Resilient U.S. economic data through mid-2026, including steady GDP expansion and a labor market that has avoided sharp deterioration, underpin the 88.5% market-implied probability against recession by year-end. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% reflects confidence in containing inflation without triggering contraction, while revised tariff policies have eased downside risks to growth. Analyst forecasts from institutions such as J.P. Morgan and the Conference Board now project sub-par but positive expansion driven by investment rather than consumer spending. Treasury yield curves and smoothed recession models from the New York Fed and FRED show probabilities below 20% for the next twelve months. Key near-term catalysts include the August FOMC meeting and upcoming employment and inflation releases, which traders will monitor for any shift in the baseline expansion path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS recession by end of 2026?
US recession by end of 2026?
$1,688,213 Vol.
$1,688,213 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
$1,688,213 Vol.
$1,688,213 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productResilient U.S. economic data through mid-2026, including steady GDP expansion and a labor market that has avoided sharp deterioration, underpin the 88.5% market-implied probability against recession by year-end. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% reflects confidence in containing inflation without triggering contraction, while revised tariff policies have eased downside risks to growth. Analyst forecasts from institutions such as J.P. Morgan and the Conference Board now project sub-par but positive expansion driven by investment rather than consumer spending. Treasury yield curves and smoothed recession models from the New York Fed and FRED show probabilities below 20% for the next twelve months. Key near-term catalysts include the August FOMC meeting and upcoming employment and inflation releases, which traders will monitor for any shift in the baseline expansion path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Market Opened: Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
Volume
$1,688,213End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productResilient U.S. economic data through mid-2026, including steady GDP expansion and a labor market that has avoided sharp deterioration, underpin the 88.5% market-implied probability against recession by year-end. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% reflects confidence in containing inflation without triggering contraction, while revised tariff policies have eased downside risks to growth. Analyst forecasts from institutions such as J.P. Morgan and the Conference Board now project sub-par but positive expansion driven by investment rather than consumer spending. Treasury yield curves and smoothed recession models from the New York Fed and FRED show probabilities below 20% for the next twelve months. Key near-term catalysts include the August FOMC meeting and upcoming employment and inflation releases, which traders will monitor for any shift in the baseline expansion path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Volume
$1,688,213End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resilient U.S. economic data through mid-2026, including steady GDP expansion and a labor market that has avoided sharp deterioration, underpin the 88.5% market-implied probability against recession by year-end. The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% reflects confidence in containing inflation without triggering contraction, while revised tariff policies have eased downside risks to growth. Analyst forecasts from institutions such as J.P. Morgan and the Conference Board now project sub-par but positive expansion driven by investment rather than consumer spending. Treasury yield curves and smoothed recession models from the New York Fed and FRED show probabilities below 20% for the next twelve months. Key near-term catalysts include the August FOMC meeting and upcoming employment and inflation releases, which traders will monitor for any shift in the baseline expansion path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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