Recent ECB staff projections show headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, prompting the Governing Council to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in June. Upward revisions to the inflation path stem from elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, while growth forecasts were lowered to 0.8%. Policymakers emphasized a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach without pre-committing to any easing path and signaled potential additional tightening later in the year. These developments have shifted market pricing toward sustained or higher rates through year-end, supporting the 82.5% implied probability against a rate cut occurring in 2026.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$28,265 Vol.
$28,265 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$28,265 Vol.
$28,265 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent ECB staff projections show headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, prompting the Governing Council to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in June. Upward revisions to the inflation path stem from elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, while growth forecasts were lowered to 0.8%. Policymakers emphasized a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach without pre-committing to any easing path and signaled potential additional tightening later in the year. These developments have shifted market pricing toward sustained or higher rates through year-end, supporting the 82.5% implied probability against a rate cut occurring in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$28,265Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent ECB staff projections show headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, prompting the Governing Council to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in June. Upward revisions to the inflation path stem from elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, while growth forecasts were lowered to 0.8%. Policymakers emphasized a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach without pre-committing to any easing path and signaled potential additional tightening later in the year. These developments have shifted market pricing toward sustained or higher rates through year-end, supporting the 82.5% implied probability against a rate cut occurring in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,265Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent ECB staff projections show headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, prompting the Governing Council to raise the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% in June. Upward revisions to the inflation path stem from elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, while growth forecasts were lowered to 0.8%. Policymakers emphasized a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach without pre-committing to any easing path and signaled potential additional tightening later in the year. These developments have shifted market pricing toward sustained or higher rates through year-end, supporting the 82.5% implied probability against a rate cut occurring in 2026.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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