The Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate released April 30, 2026, pegged U.S. real GDP growth at 2.0% annualized for Q1, spurring Polymarket traders to price 100% implied probability into the 2.0–2.5% outcome as the market resolves strictly to this figure. This marked rebound from Q4 2025's meager 0.5% expansion reflected gains across investment (boosted by AI-related equipment spending), exports, personal consumption expenditures, and government outlays, partially offset by rising imports; the print slightly trailed consensus forecasts near 2.3%. While historical revisions average under 0.5 percentage points, more complete data in May's second estimate could marginally adjust the trajectory, though unlikely to breach bin thresholds given component stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS GDP growth in Q1 2026?
US GDP growth in Q1 2026?
2.0–2.5% 100.0%
<1.0% <1%
1.0–1.5% <1%
1.5–2.0% <1%
$475,166 Vol.
$475,166 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
<1.0%
No
1.0–1.5%
No
1.5–2.0%
No
2.0–2.5%
Yes
2.5–3.0%
No
3.0–3.5%
No
≥3.5%
No
2.0–2.5% 100.0%
<1.0% <1%
1.0–1.5% <1%
1.5–2.0% <1%
$475,166 Vol.
$475,166 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
<1.0%
$57,416 Vol.
No
1.0–1.5%
$24,990 Vol.
No
1.5–2.0%
$51,775 Vol.
No
2.0–2.5%
$73,150 Vol.
Yes
2.5–3.0%
$42,622 Vol.
No
3.0–3.5%
$125,822 Vol.
No
≥3.5%
$99,391 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.The Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate released April 30, 2026, pegged U.S. real GDP growth at 2.0% annualized for Q1, spurring Polymarket traders to price 100% implied probability into the 2.0–2.5% outcome as the market resolves strictly to this figure. This marked rebound from Q4 2025's meager 0.5% expansion reflected gains across investment (boosted by AI-related equipment spending), exports, personal consumption expenditures, and government outlays, partially offset by rising imports; the print slightly trailed consensus forecasts near 2.3%. While historical revisions average under 0.5 percentage points, more complete data in May's second estimate could marginally adjust the trajectory, though unlikely to breach bin thresholds given component stability.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
Volume
$475,166End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.The Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate released April 30, 2026, pegged U.S. real GDP growth at 2.0% annualized for Q1, spurring Polymarket traders to price 100% implied probability into the 2.0–2.5% outcome as the market resolves strictly to this figure. This marked rebound from Q4 2025's meager 0.5% expansion reflected gains across investment (boosted by AI-related equipment spending), exports, personal consumption expenditures, and government outlays, partially offset by rising imports; the print slightly trailed consensus forecasts near 2.3%. While historical revisions average under 0.5 percentage points, more complete data in May's second estimate could marginally adjust the trajectory, though unlikely to breach bin thresholds given component stability.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$475,166End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate released April 30, 2026, pegged U.S. real GDP growth at 2.0% annualized for Q1, spurring Polymarket traders to price 100% implied probability into the 2.0–2.5% outcome as the market resolves strictly to this figure. This marked rebound from Q4 2025's meager 0.5% expansion reflected gains across investment (boosted by AI-related equipment spending), exports, personal consumption expenditures, and government outlays, partially offset by rising imports; the print slightly trailed consensus forecasts near 2.3%. While historical revisions average under 0.5 percentage points, more complete data in May's second estimate could marginally adjust the trajectory, though unlikely to breach bin thresholds given component stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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