Recent geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East conflict and associated energy price spikes, have emerged as the dominant driver of trader sentiment in the 2026 world GDP growth market. The IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook downgraded its baseline forecast to 3.1 percent—down from 3.3 percent in January—reflecting a moderate rise in energy costs and supply-chain pressures that weigh most heavily on emerging markets. Market-implied odds remain tightly clustered around the 3.0–3.1 percent outcomes because resilient AI-driven investment and accommodative financial conditions continue to offset trade-policy headwinds, while downside risks from prolonged conflict or renewed inflation keep probabilities for sub-2.9 percent outcomes elevated. Key upcoming catalysts include the resolution timeline for energy disruptions and the July 2026 IMF interim update, which could shift the consensus path if global inflation moderates faster than expected or trade tensions ease.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2026 World GDP Growth
2026 World GDP Growth
3.5% 22.1%
≤2.9% 18%
3.2% 13.8%
3.4% 7.8%
$17,606 Vol.
$17,606 Vol.
Jan 15, 2027
≤2.9%
33%
3.0%
35%
3.1%
34%
3.2%
29%
3.3%
8%
3.4%
8%
3.5%
22%
3.6%
35%
3.7%+
22%
3.5% 22.1%
≤2.9% 18%
3.2% 13.8%
3.4% 7.8%
$17,606 Vol.
$17,606 Vol.
Jan 15, 2027
≤2.9%
$3,766 Vol.
33%
3.0%
$481 Vol.
35%
3.1%
$470 Vol.
34%
3.2%
$1,691 Vol.
29%
3.3%
$3,380 Vol.
8%
3.4%
$3,527 Vol.
8%
3.5%
$3,053 Vol.
22%
3.6%
$452 Vol.
35%
3.7%+
$787 Vol.
22%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East conflict and associated energy price spikes, have emerged as the dominant driver of trader sentiment in the 2026 world GDP growth market. The IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook downgraded its baseline forecast to 3.1 percent—down from 3.3 percent in January—reflecting a moderate rise in energy costs and supply-chain pressures that weigh most heavily on emerging markets. Market-implied odds remain tightly clustered around the 3.0–3.1 percent outcomes because resilient AI-driven investment and accommodative financial conditions continue to offset trade-policy headwinds, while downside risks from prolonged conflict or renewed inflation keep probabilities for sub-2.9 percent outcomes elevated. Key upcoming catalysts include the resolution timeline for energy disruptions and the July 2026 IMF interim update, which could shift the consensus path if global inflation moderates faster than expected or trade tensions ease.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Volume
$17,606End Date
Jan 15, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East conflict and associated energy price spikes, have emerged as the dominant driver of trader sentiment in the 2026 world GDP growth market. The IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook downgraded its baseline forecast to 3.1 percent—down from 3.3 percent in January—reflecting a moderate rise in energy costs and supply-chain pressures that weigh most heavily on emerging markets. Market-implied odds remain tightly clustered around the 3.0–3.1 percent outcomes because resilient AI-driven investment and accommodative financial conditions continue to offset trade-policy headwinds, while downside risks from prolonged conflict or renewed inflation keep probabilities for sub-2.9 percent outcomes elevated. Key upcoming catalysts include the resolution timeline for energy disruptions and the July 2026 IMF interim update, which could shift the consensus path if global inflation moderates faster than expected or trade tensions ease.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$17,606End Date
Jan 15, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East conflict and associated energy price spikes, have emerged as the dominant driver of trader sentiment in the 2026 world GDP growth market. The IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook downgraded its baseline forecast to 3.1 percent—down from 3.3 percent in January—reflecting a moderate rise in energy costs and supply-chain pressures that weigh most heavily on emerging markets. Market-implied odds remain tightly clustered around the 3.0–3.1 percent outcomes because resilient AI-driven investment and accommodative financial conditions continue to offset trade-policy headwinds, while downside risks from prolonged conflict or renewed inflation keep probabilities for sub-2.9 percent outcomes elevated. Key upcoming catalysts include the resolution timeline for energy disruptions and the July 2026 IMF interim update, which could shift the consensus path if global inflation moderates faster than expected or trade tensions ease.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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