Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0% annualized, rebounding from the prior quarter’s 0.5% contraction tied to the government shutdown, has anchored trader expectations for full-year expansion above 2.5%. AI-fueled business fixed investment and a post-shutdown surge in government spending and exports have supported this view, even as April CPI inflation climbed to 3.8% year-over-year from energy price shocks linked to Middle East developments. With the unemployment rate holding near 4.3–4.5% and the Federal Reserve maintaining its policy stance amid persistent price pressures, market-implied odds reflect a baseline of moderate but above-trend growth for 2026, tempered by risks from elevated inflation and potential further supply disruptions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於>2.5% 41%
1.5–2.0% 17.8%
2.0–2.5% 16%
1.0–1.5% 11.7%
$29,103 交易量
$29,103 交易量
2027-01-29
低於0.5%
5%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1.5–2.0%
18%
2.0–2.5%
16%
>2.5%
41%
>2.5% 41%
1.5–2.0% 17.8%
2.0–2.5% 16%
1.0–1.5% 11.7%
$29,103 交易量
$29,103 交易量
2027-01-29
低於0.5%
$3,942 交易量
5%
0.5–1.0%
$15,364 交易量
5%
1.0–1.5%
$1,867 交易量
12%
1.5–2.0%
$1,821 交易量
18%
2.0–2.5%
$1,963 交易量
16%
>2.5%
$4,146 交易量
41%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0% annualized, rebounding from the prior quarter’s 0.5% contraction tied to the government shutdown, has anchored trader expectations for full-year expansion above 2.5%. AI-fueled business fixed investment and a post-shutdown surge in government spending and exports have supported this view, even as April CPI inflation climbed to 3.8% year-over-year from energy price shocks linked to Middle East developments. With the unemployment rate holding near 4.3–4.5% and the Federal Reserve maintaining its policy stance amid persistent price pressures, market-implied odds reflect a baseline of moderate but above-trend growth for 2026, tempered by risks from elevated inflation and potential further supply disruptions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
交易量
$29,103結束日期
2027-01-29市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0% annualized, rebounding from the prior quarter’s 0.5% contraction tied to the government shutdown, has anchored trader expectations for full-year expansion above 2.5%. AI-fueled business fixed investment and a post-shutdown surge in government spending and exports have supported this view, even as April CPI inflation climbed to 3.8% year-over-year from energy price shocks linked to Middle East developments. With the unemployment rate holding near 4.3–4.5% and the Federal Reserve maintaining its policy stance amid persistent price pressures, market-implied odds reflect a baseline of moderate but above-trend growth for 2026, tempered by risks from elevated inflation and potential further supply disruptions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$29,103結束日期
2027-01-29市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0% annualized, rebounding from the prior quarter’s 0.5% contraction tied to the government shutdown, has anchored trader expectations for full-year expansion above 2.5%. AI-fueled business fixed investment and a post-shutdown surge in government spending and exports have supported this view, even as April CPI inflation climbed to 3.8% year-over-year from energy price shocks linked to Middle East developments. With the unemployment rate holding near 4.3–4.5% and the Federal Reserve maintaining its policy stance amid persistent price pressures, market-implied odds reflect a baseline of moderate but above-trend growth for 2026, tempered by risks from elevated inflation and potential further supply disruptions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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