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エコノミー·経済政策

2026年のGDP成長率

icon for 2026年のGDP成長率
エコノミー·経済政策

2026年のGDP成長率

7月 30

1月 29, 2027

7月 30

1月 29, 2027

>2.5％ 37%

1.5〜2.0％ 22.2%

2.0〜2.5％ 16%

1.0〜1.5％ 13.6%

Polymarket

$28,595 Vol.

>2.5％ 37%

1.5〜2.0％ 22.2%

2.0〜2.5％ 16%

1.0〜1.5％ 13.6%

Polymarket

$28,595 Vol.

0.5%未満

$3,914 Vol.

7%

0.5～1.0％

$15,338 Vol.

5%

1.0〜1.5％

$1,649 Vol.

14%

1.5〜2.0％

$1,686 Vol.

22%

2.0〜2.5％

$1,918 Vol.

16%

>2.5％

$4,091 Vol.

37%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and policy developments underpin the dispersed trader sentiment on 2026 GDP growth. The advance estimate showed real GDP expanding at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, supported by rebounds in government spending after the late-2025 shutdown and strength in business investment, particularly AI-related outlays. Offsetting factors include higher tariffs weighing on consumption and imports, slower immigration constraining labor supply, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that have elevated oil prices and inflation risks. Fiscal measures enacted in 2025 continue to provide some tailwinds, yet consensus forecasts cluster near 2.2 percent, leaving room for outcomes above or below that level depending on the path of monetary policy, trade adjustments, and productivity gains through year-end.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$28,595
終了日
2027/01/29
マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and policy developments underpin the dispersed trader sentiment on 2026 GDP growth. The advance estimate showed real GDP expanding at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, supported by rebounds in government spending after the late-2025 shutdown and strength in business investment, particularly AI-related outlays. Offsetting factors include higher tariffs weighing on consumption and imports, slower immigration constraining labor supply, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East that have elevated oil prices and inflation risks. Fiscal measures enacted in 2025 continue to provide some tailwinds, yet consensus forecasts cluster near 2.2 percent, leaving room for outcomes above or below that level depending on the path of monetary policy, trade adjustments, and productivity gains through year-end.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$28,595
終了日
2027/01/29
マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「2026年のGDP成長率」はPolymarket上の6個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「>2.5％」で37%、次いで「1.5〜2.0％」が22%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、37¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に37%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年のGDP成長率」は$28.6Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Nov 12, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年のGDP成長率」で取引するには、このページに記載されている6個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年のGDP成長率」の現在のフロントランナーは「>2.5％」で37%であり、市場がこの結果に37%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「1.5〜2.0％」で22%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年のGDP成長率」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。