Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. GDP growth centers on fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act, including tax cuts and immediate expensing provisions that are projected to lift consumer spending and business investment. These factors, combined with the rebound from late-2025 government spending delays, support the leading >2.5% outcome at 43% implied probability. Offsetting pressures include recently imposed tariffs weighing on consumption and a Middle East conflict driving higher oil prices that could compress real spending and elevate inflation. The Q1 2026 second estimate of 1.6% annualized growth, revised from an initial 2.0%, highlights near-term moderation, while March FOMC projections and private forecasts cluster near 2.2%. Geopolitical risks and labor-market cooling remain key swing variables ahead of additional data releases.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоРост ВВП в 2026 году
Рост ВВП в 2026 году
>2,5% 44%
1,5–2,0% 18.6%
2,0–2,5% 18%
1,0–1,5% 11.8%
$29,913 Объем
$29,913 Объем
29 янв. 2027 г.
<0,5%
6%
0,5–1,0%
7%
1,0–1,5%
12%
1,5–2,0%
19%
2,0–2,5%
18%
>2,5%
44%
>2,5% 44%
1,5–2,0% 18.6%
2,0–2,5% 18%
1,0–1,5% 11.8%
$29,913 Объем
$29,913 Объем
29 янв. 2027 г.
<0,5%
$4,064 Объем
6%
0,5–1,0%
$15,469 Объем
7%
1,0–1,5%
$1,932 Объем
12%
1,5–2,0%
$1,978 Объем
19%
2,0–2,5%
$2,150 Объем
18%
>2,5%
$4,320 Объем
44%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. GDP growth centers on fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act, including tax cuts and immediate expensing provisions that are projected to lift consumer spending and business investment. These factors, combined with the rebound from late-2025 government spending delays, support the leading >2.5% outcome at 43% implied probability. Offsetting pressures include recently imposed tariffs weighing on consumption and a Middle East conflict driving higher oil prices that could compress real spending and elevate inflation. The Q1 2026 second estimate of 1.6% annualized growth, revised from an initial 2.0%, highlights near-term moderation, while March FOMC projections and private forecasts cluster near 2.2%. Geopolitical risks and labor-market cooling remain key swing variables ahead of additional data releases.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Объем
$29,913Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. GDP growth centers on fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act, including tax cuts and immediate expensing provisions that are projected to lift consumer spending and business investment. These factors, combined with the rebound from late-2025 government spending delays, support the leading >2.5% outcome at 43% implied probability. Offsetting pressures include recently imposed tariffs weighing on consumption and a Middle East conflict driving higher oil prices that could compress real spending and elevate inflation. The Q1 2026 second estimate of 1.6% annualized growth, revised from an initial 2.0%, highlights near-term moderation, while March FOMC projections and private forecasts cluster near 2.2%. Geopolitical risks and labor-market cooling remain key swing variables ahead of additional data releases.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$29,913Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. GDP growth centers on fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act, including tax cuts and immediate expensing provisions that are projected to lift consumer spending and business investment. These factors, combined with the rebound from late-2025 government spending delays, support the leading >2.5% outcome at 43% implied probability. Offsetting pressures include recently imposed tariffs weighing on consumption and a Middle East conflict driving higher oil prices that could compress real spending and elevate inflation. The Q1 2026 second estimate of 1.6% annualized growth, revised from an initial 2.0%, highlights near-term moderation, while March FOMC projections and private forecasts cluster near 2.2%. Geopolitical risks and labor-market cooling remain key swing variables ahead of additional data releases.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы