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Tariffs predictions & odds

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Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

64%

$365K Vol.

$26.7K Liq.

58

Ends in 2 months

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

14%

$32.8K Vol.

$9.6K Liq.

4

Ends in 2 months

100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?

100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?

5%

$44.0K Vol.

$10.9K Liq.

4

Ends in 2 months

Will Trump visit China by...?

Will Trump visit China by...?

80%

June 30

$27M Vol.

$278K today

$789K Liq.

469

Ends in 5 days

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

27%

South Korea

$257K Vol.

$352K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?

10%

$10.8K Vol.

$18.9K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

US Trade Deficit in 2026?

US Trade Deficit in 2026?

50%

800–900B

$19.9K Vol.

$9.7K Liq.

Ends in 10 months

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

31%

June 30

$177K Vol.

$23.2K Liq.

15

Ends in 2 months

Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by...?

Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by...?

15%

May 4

$45.7K Vol.

$71.5K Liq.

10

MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

61%

June 30, 2026

$2M Vol.

$63.4K today

$18.7K Liq.

111

Ends in 2 months

What price will Pump.fun hit in 2026?

What price will Pump.fun hit in 2026?

70%

↓ 0.0014

$105K Vol.

$14.3K Liq.

3

Ends in 8 months

What price will Lighter hit in 2026?

What price will Lighter hit in 2026?

19%

↑ $3

$628K Vol.

$41.9K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

What will Bitcoin outperform in April?

What will Bitcoin outperform in April?

95%

Gold

$33.5K Vol.

$15.0K Liq.

Ends in 5 days

Major US official out by April 30?

Major US official out by April 30?

54%

$25 Vol.

$155 Liq.

1

Ends in 5 days

SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?

SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?

92%

$21.3K Vol.

$16.7K Liq.

1

Ends in 8 months

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

58%

$512K Vol.

$52.8K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

What will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit in 2026?

What will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit in 2026?

39%

↓ 30

$21.8K Vol.

$143 Liq.

1

Ends in 8 months

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026?

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026?

50%

↑ $780

$0 Vol.

$58 Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

What price will Aster hit in 2026?

What price will Aster hit in 2026?

37%

↓ 0.40

$66.4K Vol.

$5.2K Liq.

2

Ends in 8 months

Zelenskyy # posts April 21 - April 28, 2026?

Zelenskyy # posts April 21 - April 28, 2026?

50%

80-99

$7.2K Vol.

$3.5K Liq.

Ends in 3 days

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Tariffs.

Polymarket currently hosts 109 active markets for Tariffs that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $31.4M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Will Trump visit China by...?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Will Trump visit China by...?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 80% chance to June 30. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Tariffs predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.