Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data, including a March 2026 deficit of $60.3 billion that widened from February amid rising imports of autos, consumer goods, and capital equipment alongside stronger energy exports, has kept trader focus centered on outcomes near 2025 levels. Tariff policy uncertainty following the Supreme Court ruling that struck down several levies in February has contributed to volatility in import volumes, while elevated oil and commodity prices tied to ongoing geopolitical tensions have supported export growth. These factors, combined with steady domestic demand and limited structural shifts in bilateral trade balances through early 2026, sustain the close positioning between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges, with further separation likely to hinge on upcoming quarterly releases, any renewed trade measures, or shifts in global supply chains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$21,009 Vol.
$21,009 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
7%
500–600B
6%
600–700B
4%
700–800B
8%
800–900B
47%
900B–1T
37%
1T–1.1T
9%
1.1T+
5%
$21,009 Vol.
$21,009 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,637 Vol.
7%
500–600B
$413 Vol.
6%
600–700B
$435 Vol.
4%
700–800B
$456 Vol.
8%
800–900B
$1,008 Vol.
47%
900B–1T
$979 Vol.
37%
1T–1.1T
$447 Vol.
9%
1.1T+
$635 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data, including a March 2026 deficit of $60.3 billion that widened from February amid rising imports of autos, consumer goods, and capital equipment alongside stronger energy exports, has kept trader focus centered on outcomes near 2025 levels. Tariff policy uncertainty following the Supreme Court ruling that struck down several levies in February has contributed to volatility in import volumes, while elevated oil and commodity prices tied to ongoing geopolitical tensions have supported export growth. These factors, combined with steady domestic demand and limited structural shifts in bilateral trade balances through early 2026, sustain the close positioning between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges, with further separation likely to hinge on upcoming quarterly releases, any renewed trade measures, or shifts in global supply chains.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$21,009End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data, including a March 2026 deficit of $60.3 billion that widened from February amid rising imports of autos, consumer goods, and capital equipment alongside stronger energy exports, has kept trader focus centered on outcomes near 2025 levels. Tariff policy uncertainty following the Supreme Court ruling that struck down several levies in February has contributed to volatility in import volumes, while elevated oil and commodity prices tied to ongoing geopolitical tensions have supported export growth. These factors, combined with steady domestic demand and limited structural shifts in bilateral trade balances through early 2026, sustain the close positioning between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges, with further separation likely to hinge on upcoming quarterly releases, any renewed trade measures, or shifts in global supply chains.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$21,009End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade data, including a March 2026 deficit of $60.3 billion that widened from February amid rising imports of autos, consumer goods, and capital equipment alongside stronger energy exports, has kept trader focus centered on outcomes near 2025 levels. Tariff policy uncertainty following the Supreme Court ruling that struck down several levies in February has contributed to volatility in import volumes, while elevated oil and commodity prices tied to ongoing geopolitical tensions have supported export growth. These factors, combined with steady domestic demand and limited structural shifts in bilateral trade balances through early 2026, sustain the close positioning between the 800–900 billion and 900 billion–1 trillion ranges, with further separation likely to hinge on upcoming quarterly releases, any renewed trade measures, or shifts in global supply chains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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