Recent U.S. trade policy, including broad tariff increases implemented in 2025, has raised import costs and prompted supply-chain shifts, contributing to a modest narrowing of the goods and services deficit to $901.5 billion for 2025. Early 2026 monthly data show deficits near $60 billion, with year-to-date narrowing driven by slower import growth and rising services exports. Projections from the Congressional Budget Office anticipate further moderation in the deficit as exports recover faster than imports amid tariff adjustments and dollar movements, while domestic demand and global conditions introduce uncertainty. These dynamics underpin trader consensus around the 800–900 billion range, with the adjacent 900 billion–1 trillion bin reflecting risks of limited rebound or policy continuity.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$21,010 Vol.
$21,010 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 miliardi
7%
500–600 miliardi
4%
600–700 miliardi
4%
700–800 miliardi
8%
800–900 miliardi
48%
900 miliardi–1 trilione
31%
1T–1,1T
6%
1,1T+
5%
$21,010 Vol.
$21,010 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 miliardi
$16,638 Vol.
7%
500–600 miliardi
$413 Vol.
4%
600–700 miliardi
$435 Vol.
4%
700–800 miliardi
$456 Vol.
8%
800–900 miliardi
$1,008 Vol.
48%
900 miliardi–1 trilione
$979 Vol.
31%
1T–1,1T
$447 Vol.
6%
1,1T+
$635 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade policy, including broad tariff increases implemented in 2025, has raised import costs and prompted supply-chain shifts, contributing to a modest narrowing of the goods and services deficit to $901.5 billion for 2025. Early 2026 monthly data show deficits near $60 billion, with year-to-date narrowing driven by slower import growth and rising services exports. Projections from the Congressional Budget Office anticipate further moderation in the deficit as exports recover faster than imports amid tariff adjustments and dollar movements, while domestic demand and global conditions introduce uncertainty. These dynamics underpin trader consensus around the 800–900 billion range, with the adjacent 900 billion–1 trillion bin reflecting risks of limited rebound or policy continuity.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$21,010Data di fine
28 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade policy, including broad tariff increases implemented in 2025, has raised import costs and prompted supply-chain shifts, contributing to a modest narrowing of the goods and services deficit to $901.5 billion for 2025. Early 2026 monthly data show deficits near $60 billion, with year-to-date narrowing driven by slower import growth and rising services exports. Projections from the Congressional Budget Office anticipate further moderation in the deficit as exports recover faster than imports amid tariff adjustments and dollar movements, while domestic demand and global conditions introduce uncertainty. These dynamics underpin trader consensus around the 800–900 billion range, with the adjacent 900 billion–1 trillion bin reflecting risks of limited rebound or policy continuity.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$21,010Data di fine
28 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. trade policy, including broad tariff increases implemented in 2025, has raised import costs and prompted supply-chain shifts, contributing to a modest narrowing of the goods and services deficit to $901.5 billion for 2025. Early 2026 monthly data show deficits near $60 billion, with year-to-date narrowing driven by slower import growth and rising services exports. Projections from the Congressional Budget Office anticipate further moderation in the deficit as exports recover faster than imports amid tariff adjustments and dollar movements, while domestic demand and global conditions introduce uncertainty. These dynamics underpin trader consensus around the 800–900 billion range, with the adjacent 900 billion–1 trillion bin reflecting risks of limited rebound or policy continuity.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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