Trader sentiment on the Bank of England’s June 20 MPC decision reflects a razor-thin contest between a 25 basis points rate hike at 43% implied probability and no change at 39.5%, driven by persistent services inflation clashing with softening labor market signals. April CPI eased to 2.3% year-over-year—nearing the 2% target—but services prices held stubbornly at 5.9%, while wage growth slowed to 5.9% excluding bonuses and unemployment rose to 4.4%, tempering hawkish momentum. Governor Bailey’s recent comments emphasized data dependence amid sticky inflation dynamics, with May CPI data due June 19 poised as the pivotal swing factor that could tip the balance toward restrictive policy tightening or steady Bank Rate at 5.25%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedBank of England decision in June?
Bank of England decision in June?
25 bps increase 43%
No change 40%
25 bps decrease 9%
50+ bps increase 9%
$11,586 Vol.
$11,586 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
50+ bps decrease
8%
25 bps decrease
9%
No change
40%
25 bps increase
44%
50+ bps increase
9%
25 bps increase 43%
No change 40%
25 bps decrease 9%
50+ bps increase 9%
$11,586 Vol.
$11,586 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$162 Vol.
8%
25 bps decrease
$25 Vol.
9%
No change
$2,073 Vol.
40%
25 bps increase
$9,296 Vol.
44%
50+ bps increase
$30 Vol.
9%
The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader sentiment on the Bank of England’s June 20 MPC decision reflects a razor-thin contest between a 25 basis points rate hike at 43% implied probability and no change at 39.5%, driven by persistent services inflation clashing with softening labor market signals. April CPI eased to 2.3% year-over-year—nearing the 2% target—but services prices held stubbornly at 5.9%, while wage growth slowed to 5.9% excluding bonuses and unemployment rose to 4.4%, tempering hawkish momentum. Governor Bailey’s recent comments emphasized data dependence amid sticky inflation dynamics, with May CPI data due June 19 poised as the pivotal swing factor that could tip the balance toward restrictive policy tightening or steady Bank Rate at 5.25%.
The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$11,586End Date
Jun 18, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader sentiment on the Bank of England’s June 20 MPC decision reflects a razor-thin contest between a 25 basis points rate hike at 43% implied probability and no change at 39.5%, driven by persistent services inflation clashing with softening labor market signals. April CPI eased to 2.3% year-over-year—nearing the 2% target—but services prices held stubbornly at 5.9%, while wage growth slowed to 5.9% excluding bonuses and unemployment rose to 4.4%, tempering hawkish momentum. Governor Bailey’s recent comments emphasized data dependence amid sticky inflation dynamics, with May CPI data due June 19 poised as the pivotal swing factor that could tip the balance toward restrictive policy tightening or steady Bank Rate at 5.25%.
The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$11,586End Date
Jun 18, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on the Bank of England’s June 20 MPC decision reflects a razor-thin contest between a 25 basis points rate hike at 43% implied probability and no change at 39.5%, driven by persistent services inflation clashing with softening labor market signals. April CPI eased to 2.3% year-over-year—nearing the 2% target—but services prices held stubbornly at 5.9%, while wage growth slowed to 5.9% excluding bonuses and unemployment rose to 4.4%, tempering hawkish momentum. Governor Bailey’s recent comments emphasized data dependence amid sticky inflation dynamics, with May CPI data due June 19 poised as the pivotal swing factor that could tip the balance toward restrictive policy tightening or steady Bank Rate at 5.25%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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