Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% market-implied probability to "No" US bank failure by April 30, driven by the FDIC's Failed Bank List showing no closures since the isolated January 30 shutdown of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust ($261 million in assets), well before market creation. This high confidence stems from resilient Q1 2026 bank earnings—featuring revenue expansion, positive operating leverage, and capital buffers exceeding Federal Reserve February stress scenarios—coupled with stable deposit funding and subdued delinquency rates amid post-2023 regulatory reforms. Tail risks, now resolved but illustrative, encompass sudden uninsured deposit runs, sharp commercial real estate writedowns, or labor market deterioration prompting FDIC action.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$25,629 Vol.
$25,629 Vol.
30 apr 2026
$25,629 Vol.
$25,629 Vol.
30 apr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% market-implied probability to "No" US bank failure by April 30, driven by the FDIC's Failed Bank List showing no closures since the isolated January 30 shutdown of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust ($261 million in assets), well before market creation. This high confidence stems from resilient Q1 2026 bank earnings—featuring revenue expansion, positive operating leverage, and capital buffers exceeding Federal Reserve February stress scenarios—coupled with stable deposit funding and subdued delinquency rates amid post-2023 regulatory reforms. Tail risks, now resolved but illustrative, encompass sudden uninsured deposit runs, sharp commercial real estate writedowns, or labor market deterioration prompting FDIC action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Mercato aperto: Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
Volume
$25,629Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% market-implied probability to "No" US bank failure by April 30, driven by the FDIC's Failed Bank List showing no closures since the isolated January 30 shutdown of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust ($261 million in assets), well before market creation. This high confidence stems from resilient Q1 2026 bank earnings—featuring revenue expansion, positive operating leverage, and capital buffers exceeding Federal Reserve February stress scenarios—coupled with stable deposit funding and subdued delinquency rates amid post-2023 regulatory reforms. Tail risks, now resolved but illustrative, encompass sudden uninsured deposit runs, sharp commercial real estate writedowns, or labor market deterioration prompting FDIC action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Volume
$25,629Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% market-implied probability to "No" US bank failure by April 30, driven by the FDIC's Failed Bank List showing no closures since the isolated January 30 shutdown of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust ($261 million in assets), well before market creation. This high confidence stems from resilient Q1 2026 bank earnings—featuring revenue expansion, positive operating leverage, and capital buffers exceeding Federal Reserve February stress scenarios—coupled with stable deposit funding and subdued delinquency rates amid post-2023 regulatory reforms. Tail risks, now resolved but illustrative, encompass sudden uninsured deposit runs, sharp commercial real estate writedowns, or labor market deterioration prompting FDIC action.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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