Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data and heightened inflation risks from war-related oil shocks highlighted in the March 17-18 minutes released April 8. Sticky core CPI momentum at 2.9% annualized over three months, alongside a steady 4.3% unemployment rate and low jobless claims near 219,000, have tempered expectations for a 25 basis point cut (10%) while elevating minor hike risks to 3.5-4%. Fed officials remain data-dependent amid elevated uncertainty, with the April 28-29 meeting and May CPI release as key near-term catalysts ahead of June's session.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트변경 없음 80%
25bp 인하 10%
25bp 인상 3.6%
50bp 이상 인하 2.9%
$3,609,859 거래량
$3,609,859 거래량
2026.07.29
50bp 이상 인하
3%
25bp 인하
10%
변경 없음
80%
25bp 인상
4%
50bp 이상 인상
1%
변경 없음 80%
25bp 인하 10%
25bp 인상 3.6%
50bp 이상 인하 2.9%
$3,609,859 거래량
$3,609,859 거래량
2026.07.29
50bp 이상 인하
$159,598 거래량
3%
25bp 인하
$109,454 거래량
10%
변경 없음
$161,970 거래량
80%
25bp 인상
$3,011,706 거래량
4%
50bp 이상 인상
$167,131 거래량
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data and heightened inflation risks from war-related oil shocks highlighted in the March 17-18 minutes released April 8. Sticky core CPI momentum at 2.9% annualized over three months, alongside a steady 4.3% unemployment rate and low jobless claims near 219,000, have tempered expectations for a 25 basis point cut (10%) while elevating minor hike risks to 3.5-4%. Fed officials remain data-dependent amid elevated uncertainty, with the April 28-29 meeting and May CPI release as key near-term catalysts ahead of June's session.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
마켓 개설일: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
거래량
$3,609,859종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data and heightened inflation risks from war-related oil shocks highlighted in the March 17-18 minutes released April 8. Sticky core CPI momentum at 2.9% annualized over three months, alongside a steady 4.3% unemployment rate and low jobless claims near 219,000, have tempered expectations for a 25 basis point cut (10%) while elevating minor hike risks to 3.5-4%. Fed officials remain data-dependent amid elevated uncertainty, with the April 28-29 meeting and May CPI release as key near-term catalysts ahead of June's session.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
거래량
$3,609,859종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 79.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data and heightened inflation risks from war-related oil shocks highlighted in the March 17-18 minutes released April 8. Sticky core CPI momentum at 2.9% annualized over three months, alongside a steady 4.3% unemployment rate and low jobless claims near 219,000, have tempered expectations for a 25 basis point cut (10%) while elevating minor hike risks to 3.5-4%. Fed officials remain data-dependent amid elevated uncertainty, with the April 28-29 meeting and May CPI release as key near-term catalysts ahead of June's session.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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