Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 17 FOMC meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures and resilient economic data. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike amid geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added a robust 178,000 jobs, exceeding expectations after February's decline. The Fed's March dot plot median held the 2026 year-end fed funds rate at 3.4%, signaling at most one cut later in the year, with Chair Powell emphasizing caution against premature easing. This positioning could shift if upcoming April jobs data or CPI show marked softening, prompting May FOMC signals for earlier action.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트변경 없음 91%
25bp 인하 6%
25bp 인상 2.4%
50bp 이상 인하 1.8%
$7,867,940 거래량
$7,867,940 거래량
2026.06.17
50bp 이상 인하
2%
25bp 인하
6%
변경 없음
91%
25bp 인상
2%
50bp 이상 인상
1%
변경 없음 91%
25bp 인하 6%
25bp 인상 2.4%
50bp 이상 인하 1.8%
$7,867,940 거래량
$7,867,940 거래량
2026.06.17
50bp 이상 인하
$2,309,697 거래량
2%
25bp 인하
$1,189,541 거래량
6%
변경 없음
$1,473,453 거래량
91%
25bp 인상
$1,589,442 거래량
2%
50bp 이상 인상
$1,305,806 거래량
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 17 FOMC meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures and resilient economic data. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike amid geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added a robust 178,000 jobs, exceeding expectations after February's decline. The Fed's March dot plot median held the 2026 year-end fed funds rate at 3.4%, signaling at most one cut later in the year, with Chair Powell emphasizing caution against premature easing. This positioning could shift if upcoming April jobs data or CPI show marked softening, prompting May FOMC signals for earlier action.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
마켓 개설일: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
거래량
$7,867,940종료일
2026.06.17마켓 개설일
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 17 FOMC meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures and resilient economic data. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike amid geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added a robust 178,000 jobs, exceeding expectations after February's decline. The Fed's March dot plot median held the 2026 year-end fed funds rate at 3.4%, signaling at most one cut later in the year, with Chair Powell emphasizing caution against premature easing. This positioning could shift if upcoming April jobs data or CPI show marked softening, prompting May FOMC signals for earlier action.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
거래량
$7,867,940종료일
2026.06.17마켓 개설일
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the June 17 FOMC meeting, reflecting persistent inflation pressures and resilient economic data. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by a 10.9% energy index spike amid geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added a robust 178,000 jobs, exceeding expectations after February's decline. The Fed's March dot plot median held the 2026 year-end fed funds rate at 3.4%, signaling at most one cut later in the year, with Chair Powell emphasizing caution against premature easing. This positioning could shift if upcoming April jobs data or CPI show marked softening, prompting May FOMC signals for earlier action.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문