Persistent inflation has driven near-certain market-implied odds for no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, with the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% since April amid April 2026 CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023—largely from energy price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions. A resilient labor market with steady payrolls and 4.3% unemployment has reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent approach and Chair Powell’s assessment of policy as appropriately positioned. The May CPI release on June 10 and updated Summary of Economic Projections represent the final near-term inputs that could shift trader consensus, though only material downside surprises would realistically challenge the current 98.3% implied probability of an unchanged outcome.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트변경 없음 98.3%
25bp 인하 <1%
50bp 이상 인하 <1%
25bp 인상 <1%
$55,189,010 거래량
$55,189,010 거래량
2026.06.17
50bp 이상 인하
1%
25bp 인하
1%
변경 없음
98%
25bp 인상
1%
50bp 이상 인상
<1%
변경 없음 98.3%
25bp 인하 <1%
50bp 이상 인하 <1%
25bp 인상 <1%
$55,189,010 거래량
$55,189,010 거래량
2026.06.17
50bp 이상 인하
$13,447,154 거래량
1%
25bp 인하
$10,180,670 거래량
1%
변경 없음
$9,542,825 거래량
98%
25bp 인상
$9,039,180 거래량
1%
50bp 이상 인상
$13,023,012 거래량
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation has driven near-certain market-implied odds for no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, with the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% since April amid April 2026 CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023—largely from energy price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions. A resilient labor market with steady payrolls and 4.3% unemployment has reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent approach and Chair Powell’s assessment of policy as appropriately positioned. The May CPI release on June 10 and updated Summary of Economic Projections represent the final near-term inputs that could shift trader consensus, though only material downside surprises would realistically challenge the current 98.3% implied probability of an unchanged outcome.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
마켓 개설일: Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ET
거래량
$55,189,010종료일
2026.06.17마켓 개설일
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation has driven near-certain market-implied odds for no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, with the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% since April amid April 2026 CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023—largely from energy price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions. A resilient labor market with steady payrolls and 4.3% unemployment has reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent approach and Chair Powell’s assessment of policy as appropriately positioned. The May CPI release on June 10 and updated Summary of Economic Projections represent the final near-term inputs that could shift trader consensus, though only material downside surprises would realistically challenge the current 98.3% implied probability of an unchanged outcome.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
거래량
$55,189,010종료일
2026.06.17마켓 개설일
Dec 10, 2025, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent inflation has driven near-certain market-implied odds for no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, with the target range holding steady at 3.50%-3.75% since April amid April 2026 CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023—largely from energy price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions. A resilient labor market with steady payrolls and 4.3% unemployment has reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent approach and Chair Powell’s assessment of policy as appropriately positioned. The May CPI release on June 10 and updated Summary of Economic Projections represent the final near-term inputs that could shift trader consensus, though only material downside surprises would realistically challenge the current 98.3% implied probability of an unchanged outcome.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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