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이코노미·Business

2026년 연준 금리 인하 횟수는?

Market icon
이코노미·Business

2026년 연준 금리 인하 횟수는?

0 (0bp) 38.9%

1회 (25bp) 27%

2회 (50bp) 16%

3회 (75bp) 9%

Polymarket

$19,271,442 거래량

0 (0bp) 38.9%

1회 (25bp) 27%

2회 (50bp) 16%

3회 (75bp) 9%

Polymarket

$19,271,442 거래량

0 (0bp)

$3,199,507 거래량

39%

1회 (25bp)

$1,039,683 거래량

27%

2회 (50bp)

$1,011,514 거래량

16%

3회 (75bp)

$934,716 거래량

9%

4회 (100bp)

$966,367 거래량

4%

5회 (125bp)

$1,062,808 거래량

1%

6회 (150bp)

$2,103,048 거래량

1%

7회 (175bp)

$953,372 거래량

<1%

8회 (200bp)

$1,222,043 거래량

<1%

9회 (225bp)

$1,215,857 거래량

<1%

10회 (250bp)

$1,702,985 거래량

<1%

11회 (275bp)

$2,024,854 거래량

<1%

12회 이상 (300bp 이상)

$1,834,928 거래량

1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 38.8% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 (0 bps), with one 25 bps cut at 26.5%, reflecting hawkish repricing after March's CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% annually—the hottest since May 2024—driven by a 10.9% energy spike from oil shocks tied to Iran tensions. The March FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with dot plot median projecting one cut amid upgraded 2.4% GDP growth and 2.7% core PCE inflation forecasts, yet futures markets now imply no easing as inflation sticks above target. Consensus shifted post-CPI release, prioritizing labor resilience (4.4% unemployment) over cuts; watch April 28-29 FOMC and May 12 CPI for swings.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
거래량
$19,271,442
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 38.8% implied probability for zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 (0 bps), with one 25 bps cut at 26.5%, reflecting hawkish repricing after March's CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% annually—the hottest since May 2024—driven by a 10.9% energy spike from oil shocks tied to Iran tensions. The March FOMC held the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with dot plot median projecting one cut amid upgraded 2.4% GDP growth and 2.7% core PCE inflation forecasts, yet futures markets now imply no easing as inflation sticks above target. Consensus shifted post-CPI release, prioritizing labor resilience (4.4% unemployment) over cuts; watch April 28-29 FOMC and May 12 CPI for swings.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
거래량
$19,271,442
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

외부 링크에 주의하세요.

자주 묻는 질문

"2026년 연준 금리 인하 횟수는?"은 13개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 39%의 "0 (0bp)"이며, 이어서 27%의 "1회 (25bp)"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 39¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 39%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "2026년 연준 금리 인하 횟수는?"은 총 $19.3 million의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Sep 29, 2025에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"2026년 연준 금리 인하 횟수는?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 13개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"2026년 연준 금리 인하 횟수는?"의 현재 유력 후보는 39%의 "0 (0bp)"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 39%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 27%의 "1회 (25bp)"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"2026년 연준 금리 인하 횟수는?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.