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정치·트럼프

누가 연준 의장으로 확정되나요?

Market icon
정치·트럼프

누가 연준 의장으로 확정되나요?

케빈 워시 93.9%

주디 셸턴 1.4%

미셸 보우먼 1.4%

제롬 파월 <1%

Polymarket

$30,018,745 거래량

케빈 워시 93.9%

주디 셸턴 1.4%

미셸 보우먼 1.4%

제롬 파월 <1%

Polymarket

$30,018,745 거래량

케빈 워시

$5,890,191 거래량

94%

주디 셸턴

$12,755,555 거래량

1%

케빈 해싯

$1,241,118 거래량

1%

크리스토퍼 월러

$1,369,973 거래량

<1%

제롬 파월

$1,199,425 거래량

1%

스티븐 미란

$1,015,249 거래량

<1%

스콧 베센트

$3,197,659 거래량

<1%

릭 라이더

$898,935 거래량

1%

미셸 보우먼

$2,450,644 거래량

1%

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's formal nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair in early March 2026, succeeding Jerome Powell whose term ends May 15, has solidified trader consensus at over 93% implied probability for confirmation. Recent Senate Banking Committee advancements, including Warsh's April 14 financial disclosures revealing assets exceeding $100 million—which he pledged to divest—signal procedural progress despite a brief hearing delay from April 9 now eyed for April 21 or later. Warsh's inflation-hawk views align with administration priorities, earning endorsements amid Powell's ongoing tenure pledge until a successor is seated. Realistic challenges include Democratic opposition led by figures like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, potential GOP holds, or extended probes into current Fed leadership derailing the timeline.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$30,018,745
종료일
2026.10.31
마켓 개설일
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Trump's formal nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair in early March 2026, succeeding Jerome Powell whose term ends May 15, has solidified trader consensus at over 93% implied probability for confirmation. Recent Senate Banking Committee advancements, including Warsh's April 14 financial disclosures revealing assets exceeding $100 million—which he pledged to divest—signal procedural progress despite a brief hearing delay from April 9 now eyed for April 21 or later. Warsh's inflation-hawk views align with administration priorities, earning endorsements amid Powell's ongoing tenure pledge until a successor is seated. Realistic challenges include Democratic opposition led by figures like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, potential GOP holds, or extended probes into current Fed leadership derailing the timeline.

This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.

If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$30,018,745
종료일
2026.10.31
마켓 개설일
Mar 4, 2026, 3:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Formal confirmation as Chair of the Federal Reserve requires the Senate to confirm a nominee as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count. Senate confirmation of a listed individual as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify. If no Senate confirmation for the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve has occurred by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the U.S. Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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자주 묻는 질문

"누가 연준 의장으로 확정되나요?"은 9개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 94%의 "케빈 워시"이며, 이어서 1%의 "주디 셸턴"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 94¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 94%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "누가 연준 의장으로 확정되나요?"은 총 $30 million의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Mar 4, 2026에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"누가 연준 의장으로 확정되나요?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 9개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"누가 연준 의장으로 확정되나요?"의 현재 유력 후보는 94%의 "케빈 워시"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 94%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 1%의 "주디 셸턴"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"누가 연준 의장으로 확정되나요?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.