Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by a sharp energy-price spike tied to geopolitical tensions, has shifted trader focus toward the Federal Reserve’s policy path and raised the market-implied odds of eventual tightening. The FOMC held the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% following its April 28–29 meeting, with the June 16–17 decision now the next key test; futures markets currently assign roughly 97% probability to no change at that gathering. Core PCE readings and labor-market resilience remain the dominant variables, while the June 10 CPI release and subsequent FOMC communications will supply fresh data that could alter the balance between pause expectations and any reassessment of upside inflation risks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$154,138 거래량
2026.12.09
6월 회의
1%
7월 회의
6%
9월 회의
11%
10월 회의
26%
$154,138 거래량
6월 회의
$15,781 거래량
1%
7월 회의
$1,768 거래량
6%
9월 회의
$2,737 거래량
11%
10월 회의
$2,545 거래량
26%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by a sharp energy-price spike tied to geopolitical tensions, has shifted trader focus toward the Federal Reserve’s policy path and raised the market-implied odds of eventual tightening. The FOMC held the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% following its April 28–29 meeting, with the June 16–17 decision now the next key test; futures markets currently assign roughly 97% probability to no change at that gathering. Core PCE readings and labor-market resilience remain the dominant variables, while the June 10 CPI release and subsequent FOMC communications will supply fresh data that could alter the balance between pause expectations and any reassessment of upside inflation risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
거래량
$154,138종료일
2026.10.29마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by a sharp energy-price spike tied to geopolitical tensions, has shifted trader focus toward the Federal Reserve’s policy path and raised the market-implied odds of eventual tightening. The FOMC held the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% following its April 28–29 meeting, with the June 16–17 decision now the next key test; futures markets currently assign roughly 97% probability to no change at that gathering. Core PCE readings and labor-market resilience remain the dominant variables, while the June 10 CPI release and subsequent FOMC communications will supply fresh data that could alter the balance between pause expectations and any reassessment of upside inflation risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$154,138종료일
2026.10.29마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated April 2026 CPI inflation at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by a sharp energy-price spike tied to geopolitical tensions, has shifted trader focus toward the Federal Reserve’s policy path and raised the market-implied odds of eventual tightening. The FOMC held the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%–3.75% following its April 28–29 meeting, with the June 16–17 decision now the next key test; futures markets currently assign roughly 97% probability to no change at that gathering. Core PCE readings and labor-market resilience remain the dominant variables, while the June 10 CPI release and subsequent FOMC communications will supply fresh data that could alter the balance between pause expectations and any reassessment of upside inflation risks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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