Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate changes across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—amid surging energy costs from geopolitical tensions. This sticky inflation, coupled with a resilient labor market showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions and unemployment steady at 4.3%, has reinforced the Fed's cautious stance following its March dot plot projecting a median funds rate of 3.4% by year-end. Secondary outcomes like Pause-Pause-Cut at 10.5% reflect modest late-summer cut expectations, with the April meeting now just two weeks away as the key near-term catalyst.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Pause–Pause–Pause 78%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Other 10%
Pause–Cut–Cut 3.1%
신규
신규
2026.07.29
Cut–Pause–Pause
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
78%
Pause–Pause–Cut
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
3%
Other
10%
Pause–Pause–Pause 78%
Pause–Pause–Cut 11%
Other 10%
Pause–Cut–Cut 3.1%
신규
신규
2026.07.29
Cut–Pause–Pause
$819 거래량
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$666 거래량
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$720 거래량
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$746 거래량
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,287 거래량
78%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$926 거래량
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$527 거래량
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$729 거래량
3%
Other
$896 거래량
10%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate changes across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—amid surging energy costs from geopolitical tensions. This sticky inflation, coupled with a resilient labor market showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions and unemployment steady at 4.3%, has reinforced the Fed's cautious stance following its March dot plot projecting a median funds rate of 3.4% by year-end. Secondary outcomes like Pause-Pause-Cut at 10.5% reflect modest late-summer cut expectations, with the April meeting now just two weeks away as the key near-term catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
마켓 개설일: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
거래량
$7,316종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate changes across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—amid surging energy costs from geopolitical tensions. This sticky inflation, coupled with a resilient labor market showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions and unemployment steady at 4.3%, has reinforced the Fed's cautious stance following its March dot plot projecting a median funds rate of 3.4% by year-end. Secondary outcomes like Pause-Pause-Cut at 10.5% reflect modest late-summer cut expectations, with the April meeting now just two weeks away as the key near-term catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
거래량
$7,316종료일
2026.07.29마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 81% implied probability for no Federal Reserve rate changes across the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, driven by hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI rising 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—amid surging energy costs from geopolitical tensions. This sticky inflation, coupled with a resilient labor market showing 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions and unemployment steady at 4.3%, has reinforced the Fed's cautious stance following its March dot plot projecting a median funds rate of 3.4% by year-end. Secondary outcomes like Pause-Pause-Cut at 10.5% reflect modest late-summer cut expectations, with the April meeting now just two weeks away as the key near-term catalyst.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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