Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 88.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steadfast 3.50%–3.75% federal funds target range amid reaccelerating inflation pressures. The March 17–18 decision held rates steady as expected, reinforced by hotter-than-anticipated March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—driven by a 10.9% energy surge and 21.2% gasoline spike. Resilient labor markets, with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, and FOMC minutes showing some openness to hikes further dim near-term cut prospects, pricing out alternatives like Pause–Pause–Cut at just 8.0%. Key catalysts ahead include April 28–29 FOMC projections and incoming April CPI and jobs data.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트동결–동결–동결 89%
동결–동결–인하 8%
기타 3.1%
멈춤–인하–멈춤 <1%
$905,575 거래량
$905,575 거래량
2026.06.17
동결–동결–동결
89%
동결–동결–인하
8%
기타
3%
멈춤–인하–멈춤
1%
동결–인하–인하
<1%
동결–동결–동결 89%
동결–동결–인하 8%
기타 3.1%
멈춤–인하–멈춤 <1%
$905,575 거래량
$905,575 거래량
2026.06.17
동결–동결–동결
$31,174 거래량
89%
동결–동결–인하
$15,207 거래량
8%
기타
$216,565 거래량
3%
멈춤–인하–멈춤
$132,529 거래량
1%
동결–인하–인하
$510,099 거래량
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 88.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steadfast 3.50%–3.75% federal funds target range amid reaccelerating inflation pressures. The March 17–18 decision held rates steady as expected, reinforced by hotter-than-anticipated March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—driven by a 10.9% energy surge and 21.2% gasoline spike. Resilient labor markets, with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, and FOMC minutes showing some openness to hikes further dim near-term cut prospects, pricing out alternatives like Pause–Pause–Cut at just 8.0%. Key catalysts ahead include April 28–29 FOMC projections and incoming April CPI and jobs data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
마켓 개설일: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
거래량
$905,575종료일
2026.06.17마켓 개설일
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 88.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steadfast 3.50%–3.75% federal funds target range amid reaccelerating inflation pressures. The March 17–18 decision held rates steady as expected, reinforced by hotter-than-anticipated March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—driven by a 10.9% energy surge and 21.2% gasoline spike. Resilient labor markets, with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, and FOMC minutes showing some openness to hikes further dim near-term cut prospects, pricing out alternatives like Pause–Pause–Cut at just 8.0%. Key catalysts ahead include April 28–29 FOMC projections and incoming April CPI and jobs data.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
거래량
$905,575종료일
2026.06.17마켓 개설일
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 88.5% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve's steadfast 3.50%–3.75% federal funds target range amid reaccelerating inflation pressures. The March 17–18 decision held rates steady as expected, reinforced by hotter-than-anticipated March CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—driven by a 10.9% energy surge and 21.2% gasoline spike. Resilient labor markets, with unemployment dipping to 4.3%, and FOMC minutes showing some openness to hikes further dim near-term cut prospects, pricing out alternatives like Pause–Pause–Cut at just 8.0%. Key catalysts ahead include April 28–29 FOMC projections and incoming April CPI and jobs data.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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