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정치·Fed

제롬 파월이 연준 이사회에서...?

Market icon
정치·Fed

제롬 파월이 연준 이사회에서...?

$133,267 거래량

2026.12.31
Polymarket

$133,267 거래량

Polymarket

5월 30일

$79,339 거래량

31%

12월 31일

$53,929 거래량

63%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair expires May 15, 2026, but his Board of Governors seat extends to January 2028, fueling trader debate over his potential ouster amid President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as successor and recent threats to fire Powell if he lingers post-term. Escalating tensions stem from a DOJ probe led by US Attorney Jeanine Pirro—subpoenas against the Fed were blocked last month—coupled with Powell's March statements affirming he will remain until a successor is confirmed and any investigation resolves. Markets price Fed independence risks, with recent FOMC decisions holding rates steady despite Trump pressure for cuts, as Senate confirmation of Warsh and legal challenges loom as key catalysts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
거래량
$133,267
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Jan 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair expires May 15, 2026, but his Board of Governors seat extends to January 2028, fueling trader debate over his potential ouster amid President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as successor and recent threats to fire Powell if he lingers post-term. Escalating tensions stem from a DOJ probe led by US Attorney Jeanine Pirro—subpoenas against the Fed were blocked last month—coupled with Powell's March statements affirming he will remain until a successor is confirmed and any investigation resolves. Markets price Fed independence risks, with recent FOMC decisions holding rates steady despite Trump pressure for cuts, as Senate confirmation of Warsh and legal challenges loom as key catalysts.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
거래량
$133,267
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Jan 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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자주 묻는 질문

"제롬 파월이 연준 이사회에서...?"은 2개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 63%의 "12월 31일"이며, 이어서 31%의 "5월 30일"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 63¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 63%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "제롬 파월이 연준 이사회에서...?"은 총 $133.3K의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Jan 5, 2026에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"제롬 파월이 연준 이사회에서...?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 2개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"제롬 파월이 연준 이사회에서...?"의 현재 유력 후보는 63%의 "12월 31일"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 63%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 31%의 "5월 30일"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"제롬 파월이 연준 이사회에서...?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.