Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 95.5% implied probability against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell facing jail before 2027, driven by repeated judicial rebukes of the Department of Justice's criminal probe into his congressional testimony on the Fed's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation. Chief U.S. District Judge James Boasberg quashed subpoenas in March 2026 and upheld the block on April 3, citing "essentially zero evidence" of fraud or false statements and deeming the inquiry a pretext to pressure independent monetary policy amid President Trump's demands for rate cuts. No charges have been filed since the probe's launch in late 2025, underscoring procedural barriers to indictment and conviction within the timeframe. Tail risks include a successful DOJ appeal unlocking evidence or escalated political intervention, though Fed independence and judicial precedent heavily favor resolution without incarceration.