Traders assign a 97.2% implied probability to Jerome Powell avoiding jail before 2027 because the January 2026 criminal probe into his congressional testimony on the Federal Reserve’s headquarters renovations was quashed by federal court in March and formally dropped by the DOJ in April, with the matter shifted to the Fed’s inspector general. Judicial findings that subpoenas served as a pretext to pressure the central bank, combined with Powell’s completed term as chair in May 2026 and continued service as governor through 2028, have eliminated near-term legal pathways to indictment or conviction. While tail risks such as renewed executive-branch actions or congressional referrals remain theoretically possible amid ongoing tensions over monetary policy independence, courts have consistently protected institutional boundaries, anchoring the market’s strong consensus.