The closure of the Department of Justice’s sole criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in April 2026 without charges underpins the 98.3% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. A federal judge earlier quashed related grand jury subpoenas tied to headquarters renovation testimony, citing insufficient evidence of wrongdoing beyond policy disagreements, while institutional protections around the independent central bank role limit prosecutorial reach. No active federal probes, indictments, or substantiated allegations remain that could plausibly lead to conviction and incarceration within the timeframe. Tail-risk scenarios, such as entirely new investigations emerging from unforeseen events, face substantial legal and procedural hurdles given the prior dismissal and absence of probable cause. Trader consensus reflects these verified developments and the high bar for jailing a sitting Fed official.