The dismissal of the DOJ criminal investigation into Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a federal judge's ruling that subpoenas lacked evidence of wrongdoing and appeared pretextual, underpins the 97.3% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. With no active charges, indictments, or credible legal proceedings as of mid-June 2026, traders price in the institutional protections and high evidentiary bar facing any renewed scrutiny of a former Fed chair. While tail risks such as unexpected political referrals or revived probes tied to monetary policy disputes remain theoretically possible, they would require extraordinary developments beyond current regulatory and judicial realities to alter outcomes materially.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.12.31
신규
신규
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The dismissal of the DOJ criminal investigation into Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a federal judge's ruling that subpoenas lacked evidence of wrongdoing and appeared pretextual, underpins the 97.3% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. With no active charges, indictments, or credible legal proceedings as of mid-June 2026, traders price in the institutional protections and high evidentiary bar facing any renewed scrutiny of a former Fed chair. While tail risks such as unexpected political referrals or revived probes tied to monetary policy disputes remain theoretically possible, they would require extraordinary developments beyond current regulatory and judicial realities to alter outcomes materially.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
거래량
$4,061종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The dismissal of the DOJ criminal investigation into Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a federal judge's ruling that subpoenas lacked evidence of wrongdoing and appeared pretextual, underpins the 97.3% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. With no active charges, indictments, or credible legal proceedings as of mid-June 2026, traders price in the institutional protections and high evidentiary bar facing any renewed scrutiny of a former Fed chair. While tail risks such as unexpected political referrals or revived probes tied to monetary policy disputes remain theoretically possible, they would require extraordinary developments beyond current regulatory and judicial realities to alter outcomes materially.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$4,061종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The dismissal of the DOJ criminal investigation into Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a federal judge's ruling that subpoenas lacked evidence of wrongdoing and appeared pretextual, underpins the 97.3% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. With no active charges, indictments, or credible legal proceedings as of mid-June 2026, traders price in the institutional protections and high evidentiary bar facing any renewed scrutiny of a former Fed chair. While tail risks such as unexpected political referrals or revived probes tied to monetary policy disputes remain theoretically possible, they would require extraordinary developments beyond current regulatory and judicial realities to alter outcomes materially.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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