The closure of the U.S. Department of Justice criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in April 2026 without charges underpins the 97.5% market-implied probability that he will not face jail time before 2027. The inquiry, opened in January amid scrutiny of headquarters renovation cost overruns and congressional testimony, drew criticism as an attempt to pressure monetary policy decisions on interest rates. With the matter referred to the Fed’s inspector general and no evidence of wrongdoing established, traders view further prosecution as highly improbable given institutional norms and Powell’s term structure. While tail-risk scenarios such as renewed politically driven investigations remain possible before 2027, the absence of active proceedings and precedent for shielding central bank officials support the overwhelming consensus.