The 10-year Treasury yield, currently hovering near 4.28% as of April 16, 2026, reflects trader consensus on persistent inflationary pressures amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, which drove March CPI to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4% in February—fueled by surging energy costs. The Federal Reserve held the fed funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in its March meeting, signaling caution despite a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.3%. Yields have stabilized after recent volatility tied to geopolitical developments, with market-implied paths pricing modest upside risks from sticky inflation. Traders eye the April 28-29 FOMC meeting and May 12 CPI release for policy clues that could push yields toward 4.3%-4.5% peaks before 2027.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$186,891 거래량
2026.12.31
4.5%
77%
4.6%
57%
4.8%
31%
5.0%
14%
5.2%
10%
5.5%
10%
5.7%
5%
6.0%
4%
$186,891 거래량
4.5%
$27,218 거래량
77%
4.6%
$34,761 거래량
57%
4.8%
$44,997 거래량
31%
5.0%
$38,572 거래량
14%
5.2%
$8,237 거래량
10%
5.5%
$1,143 거래량
10%
5.7%
$3,009 거래량
5%
6.0%
$1,987 거래량
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, currently hovering near 4.28% as of April 16, 2026, reflects trader consensus on persistent inflationary pressures amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, which drove March CPI to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4% in February—fueled by surging energy costs. The Federal Reserve held the fed funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in its March meeting, signaling caution despite a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.3%. Yields have stabilized after recent volatility tied to geopolitical developments, with market-implied paths pricing modest upside risks from sticky inflation. Traders eye the April 28-29 FOMC meeting and May 12 CPI release for policy clues that could push yields toward 4.3%-4.5% peaks before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
마켓 개설일: Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
거래량
$186,891종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, currently hovering near 4.28% as of April 16, 2026, reflects trader consensus on persistent inflationary pressures amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, which drove March CPI to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4% in February—fueled by surging energy costs. The Federal Reserve held the fed funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in its March meeting, signaling caution despite a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.3%. Yields have stabilized after recent volatility tied to geopolitical developments, with market-implied paths pricing modest upside risks from sticky inflation. Traders eye the April 28-29 FOMC meeting and May 12 CPI release for policy clues that could push yields toward 4.3%-4.5% peaks before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
거래량
$186,891종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield, currently hovering near 4.28% as of April 16, 2026, reflects trader consensus on persistent inflationary pressures amid the U.S.-Iran conflict, which drove March CPI to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4% in February—fueled by surging energy costs. The Federal Reserve held the fed funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in its March meeting, signaling caution despite a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.3%. Yields have stabilized after recent volatility tied to geopolitical developments, with market-implied paths pricing modest upside risks from sticky inflation. Traders eye the April 28-29 FOMC meeting and May 12 CPI release for policy clues that could push yields toward 4.3%-4.5% peaks before 2027.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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