Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99% implied probability for the Federal Open Market Committee to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% across its January, March, and April 2026 meetings, anchored by confirmed pauses at the prior two gatherings amid resilient economic conditions. January's decision marked the first hold since prior cuts, reinforced by solid GDP expansion and firm labor markets entering 2026, while March's 11-1 vote cited persistent core inflation around 3% in February, upside risks from Middle East-driven oil shocks, and steady unemployment. Recent minutes underscore limited room for easing without clearer progress toward 2% inflation. A sharp downturn in upcoming April CPI or nonfarm payrolls data could challenge this positioning ahead of the April 28-29 meeting.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트동결–동결–동결 99.0%
동결–동결–인하 <1%
기타 <1%
$625,558 거래량
$625,558 거래량
2026.04.29
동결–동결–동결
99%
동결–동결–인하
1%
기타
<1%
동결–동결–동결 99.0%
동결–동결–인하 <1%
기타 <1%
$625,558 거래량
$625,558 거래량
2026.04.29
동결–동결–동결
$88,972 거래량
99%
동결–동결–인하
$220,727 거래량
1%
기타
$275,873 거래량
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99% implied probability for the Federal Open Market Committee to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% across its January, March, and April 2026 meetings, anchored by confirmed pauses at the prior two gatherings amid resilient economic conditions. January's decision marked the first hold since prior cuts, reinforced by solid GDP expansion and firm labor markets entering 2026, while March's 11-1 vote cited persistent core inflation around 3% in February, upside risks from Middle East-driven oil shocks, and steady unemployment. Recent minutes underscore limited room for easing without clearer progress toward 2% inflation. A sharp downturn in upcoming April CPI or nonfarm payrolls data could challenge this positioning ahead of the April 28-29 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
거래량
$625,558종료일
2026.04.29마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99% implied probability for the Federal Open Market Committee to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% across its January, March, and April 2026 meetings, anchored by confirmed pauses at the prior two gatherings amid resilient economic conditions. January's decision marked the first hold since prior cuts, reinforced by solid GDP expansion and firm labor markets entering 2026, while March's 11-1 vote cited persistent core inflation around 3% in February, upside risks from Middle East-driven oil shocks, and steady unemployment. Recent minutes underscore limited room for easing without clearer progress toward 2% inflation. A sharp downturn in upcoming April CPI or nonfarm payrolls data could challenge this positioning ahead of the April 28-29 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
거래량
$625,558종료일
2026.04.29마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99% implied probability for the Federal Open Market Committee to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% across its January, March, and April 2026 meetings, anchored by confirmed pauses at the prior two gatherings amid resilient economic conditions. January's decision marked the first hold since prior cuts, reinforced by solid GDP expansion and firm labor markets entering 2026, while March's 11-1 vote cited persistent core inflation around 3% in February, upside risks from Middle East-driven oil shocks, and steady unemployment. Recent minutes underscore limited room for easing without clearer progress toward 2% inflation. A sharp downturn in upcoming April CPI or nonfarm payrolls data could challenge this positioning ahead of the April 28-29 meeting.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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