Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability of no additional US bank failure by April 30, 2026, driven by the sector's stability following the sole FDIC-listed closure of a small institution, First Independence Bank, on January 30. February 2026 Federal Reserve stress tests affirmed large banks' resilience, with projected capital ratios exceeding minimums even in severe recession scenarios featuring heightened commercial real estate stress and unemployment spikes to 10%. Q1 2026 earnings previews signal solid net interest income and deposit growth amid controlled CRE delinquencies at around 5%. Upcoming catalysts include major bank earnings this week and the April nonfarm payrolls release. Realistic challenges include a sharp private credit liquidity crunch or depositor run on mid-tier regionals amid softening GDP growth.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$11,342 거래량
$11,342 거래량
2026.04.30
$11,342 거래량
$11,342 거래량
2026.04.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability of no additional US bank failure by April 30, 2026, driven by the sector's stability following the sole FDIC-listed closure of a small institution, First Independence Bank, on January 30. February 2026 Federal Reserve stress tests affirmed large banks' resilience, with projected capital ratios exceeding minimums even in severe recession scenarios featuring heightened commercial real estate stress and unemployment spikes to 10%. Q1 2026 earnings previews signal solid net interest income and deposit growth amid controlled CRE delinquencies at around 5%. Upcoming catalysts include major bank earnings this week and the April nonfarm payrolls release. Realistic challenges include a sharp private credit liquidity crunch or depositor run on mid-tier regionals amid softening GDP growth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
마켓 개설일: Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
거래량
$11,342종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability of no additional US bank failure by April 30, 2026, driven by the sector's stability following the sole FDIC-listed closure of a small institution, First Independence Bank, on January 30. February 2026 Federal Reserve stress tests affirmed large banks' resilience, with projected capital ratios exceeding minimums even in severe recession scenarios featuring heightened commercial real estate stress and unemployment spikes to 10%. Q1 2026 earnings previews signal solid net interest income and deposit growth amid controlled CRE delinquencies at around 5%. Upcoming catalysts include major bank earnings this week and the April nonfarm payrolls release. Realistic challenges include a sharp private credit liquidity crunch or depositor run on mid-tier regionals amid softening GDP growth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
거래량
$11,342종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability of no additional US bank failure by April 30, 2026, driven by the sector's stability following the sole FDIC-listed closure of a small institution, First Independence Bank, on January 30. February 2026 Federal Reserve stress tests affirmed large banks' resilience, with projected capital ratios exceeding minimums even in severe recession scenarios featuring heightened commercial real estate stress and unemployment spikes to 10%. Q1 2026 earnings previews signal solid net interest income and deposit growth amid controlled CRE delinquencies at around 5%. Upcoming catalysts include major bank earnings this week and the April nonfarm payrolls release. Realistic challenges include a sharp private credit liquidity crunch or depositor run on mid-tier regionals amid softening GDP growth.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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