Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76% implied probability of no US bank failure by June 30, driven by the sector's demonstrated resilience after the isolated January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the sole 2026 failure to date, with minimal $19.7 million FDIC cost and full depositor protection. Recent Q1 2026 earnings from JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup exceeded estimates, highlighting robust net interest income growth, stable credit quality, and capital markets strength amid benign loan loss provisions. February's Federal Reserve stress tests confirmed large banks' capital adequacy, maintaining buffers steady through 2027. With historically low failure rates (two in 2025) and no systemic pressures evident, traders anticipate continuity absent major economic shocks, ahead of the forthcoming FDIC Q1 banking profile.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$14,600 거래량
$14,600 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$14,600 거래량
$14,600 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76% implied probability of no US bank failure by June 30, driven by the sector's demonstrated resilience after the isolated January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the sole 2026 failure to date, with minimal $19.7 million FDIC cost and full depositor protection. Recent Q1 2026 earnings from JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup exceeded estimates, highlighting robust net interest income growth, stable credit quality, and capital markets strength amid benign loan loss provisions. February's Federal Reserve stress tests confirmed large banks' capital adequacy, maintaining buffers steady through 2027. With historically low failure rates (two in 2025) and no systemic pressures evident, traders anticipate continuity absent major economic shocks, ahead of the forthcoming FDIC Q1 banking profile.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
마켓 개설일: Apr 8, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
거래량
$14,600종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Apr 8, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76% implied probability of no US bank failure by June 30, driven by the sector's demonstrated resilience after the isolated January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the sole 2026 failure to date, with minimal $19.7 million FDIC cost and full depositor protection. Recent Q1 2026 earnings from JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup exceeded estimates, highlighting robust net interest income growth, stable credit quality, and capital markets strength amid benign loan loss provisions. February's Federal Reserve stress tests confirmed large banks' capital adequacy, maintaining buffers steady through 2027. With historically low failure rates (two in 2025) and no systemic pressures evident, traders anticipate continuity absent major economic shocks, ahead of the forthcoming FDIC Q1 banking profile.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
거래량
$14,600종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Apr 8, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 76% implied probability of no US bank failure by June 30, driven by the sector's demonstrated resilience after the isolated January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust—the sole 2026 failure to date, with minimal $19.7 million FDIC cost and full depositor protection. Recent Q1 2026 earnings from JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup exceeded estimates, highlighting robust net interest income growth, stable credit quality, and capital markets strength amid benign loan loss provisions. February's Federal Reserve stress tests confirmed large banks' capital adequacy, maintaining buffers steady through 2027. With historically low failure rates (two in 2025) and no systemic pressures evident, traders anticipate continuity absent major economic shocks, ahead of the forthcoming FDIC Q1 banking profile.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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