Polymarket traders have locked in a 100% implied probability for China GDP growth (year-over-year) in Q1 2026 falling in the 5.0-5.5% range, following the National Bureau of Statistics' April 16 release confirming exactly 5.0% expansion—accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5% and surpassing consensus forecasts of 4.8%. This rebound reflects robust industrial production up 6.1% y/y, surging foreign trade volumes (15% y/y growth), and sustained policy stimulus amid resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing gains. With the official figure cementing resolution, trader consensus is unassailable barring an unprecedented NBS revision, which historical precedent deems negligible; focus shifts to Q2 indicators for forward guidance.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$534,097 거래량
$534,097 거래량
2026.04.17
3.5% 미만
<1%
4.0-4.5%
<1%
$534,097 거래량
$534,097 거래량
2026.04.17
3.5% 미만
$41,663 거래량
<1%
4.0-4.5%
$86,099 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlPolymarket traders have locked in a 100% implied probability for China GDP growth (year-over-year) in Q1 2026 falling in the 5.0-5.5% range, following the National Bureau of Statistics' April 16 release confirming exactly 5.0% expansion—accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5% and surpassing consensus forecasts of 4.8%. This rebound reflects robust industrial production up 6.1% y/y, surging foreign trade volumes (15% y/y growth), and sustained policy stimulus amid resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing gains. With the official figure cementing resolution, trader consensus is unassailable barring an unprecedented NBS revision, which historical precedent deems negligible; focus shifts to Q2 indicators for forward guidance.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
마켓 개설일: Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
거래량
$534,097종료일
2026.04.17마켓 개설일
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...결과 제안됨: 아니오
이의 없음
최종 결과: 아니오
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlPolymarket traders have locked in a 100% implied probability for China GDP growth (year-over-year) in Q1 2026 falling in the 5.0-5.5% range, following the National Bureau of Statistics' April 16 release confirming exactly 5.0% expansion—accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5% and surpassing consensus forecasts of 4.8%. This rebound reflects robust industrial production up 6.1% y/y, surging foreign trade volumes (15% y/y growth), and sustained policy stimulus amid resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing gains. With the official figure cementing resolution, trader consensus is unassailable barring an unprecedented NBS revision, which historical precedent deems negligible; focus shifts to Q2 indicators for forward guidance.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
거래량
$534,097종료일
2026.04.17마켓 개설일
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...결과 제안됨: 아니오
이의 없음
최종 결과: 아니오
Polymarket traders have locked in a 100% implied probability for China GDP growth (year-over-year) in Q1 2026 falling in the 5.0-5.5% range, following the National Bureau of Statistics' April 16 release confirming exactly 5.0% expansion—accelerating from Q4 2025's 4.5% and surpassing consensus forecasts of 4.8%. This rebound reflects robust industrial production up 6.1% y/y, surging foreign trade volumes (15% y/y growth), and sustained policy stimulus amid resilient exports and high-tech manufacturing gains. With the official figure cementing resolution, trader consensus is unassailable barring an unprecedented NBS revision, which historical precedent deems negligible; focus shifts to Q2 indicators for forward guidance.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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