Polymarket traders assign a 91% implied probability to positive US GDP growth in 2026, driven by resilient labor market data and consensus forecasts clustering around 2% full-year expansion. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—beating expectations—while the Federal Reserve's March Summary of Economic Projections median holds at 2.4% real GDP growth, aligning with IMF and S&P Global estimates of 2.4% and 2.2%. Despite Q4 2025 revised to 0.5% and Atlanta Fed Q1 GDPNow softening to 1.3%, skin-in-the-game consensus dismisses contraction risks. Realistic challenges include sustained March CPI acceleration to 3.3% year-over-year delaying Fed rate cuts or a weak Q1 GDP advance estimate due late April signaling broader slowdown.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$18,892 거래량
$18,892 거래량
2027.01.29
$18,892 거래량
$18,892 거래량
2027.01.29
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders assign a 91% implied probability to positive US GDP growth in 2026, driven by resilient labor market data and consensus forecasts clustering around 2% full-year expansion. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—beating expectations—while the Federal Reserve's March Summary of Economic Projections median holds at 2.4% real GDP growth, aligning with IMF and S&P Global estimates of 2.4% and 2.2%. Despite Q4 2025 revised to 0.5% and Atlanta Fed Q1 GDPNow softening to 1.3%, skin-in-the-game consensus dismisses contraction risks. Realistic challenges include sustained March CPI acceleration to 3.3% year-over-year delaying Fed rate cuts or a weak Q1 GDP advance estimate due late April signaling broader slowdown.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
마켓 개설일: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
거래량
$18,892종료일
2027.01.29마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders assign a 91% implied probability to positive US GDP growth in 2026, driven by resilient labor market data and consensus forecasts clustering around 2% full-year expansion. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—beating expectations—while the Federal Reserve's March Summary of Economic Projections median holds at 2.4% real GDP growth, aligning with IMF and S&P Global estimates of 2.4% and 2.2%. Despite Q4 2025 revised to 0.5% and Atlanta Fed Q1 GDPNow softening to 1.3%, skin-in-the-game consensus dismisses contraction risks. Realistic challenges include sustained March CPI acceleration to 3.3% year-over-year delaying Fed rate cuts or a weak Q1 GDP advance estimate due late April signaling broader slowdown.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
거래량
$18,892종료일
2027.01.29마켓 개설일
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign a 91% implied probability to positive US GDP growth in 2026, driven by resilient labor market data and consensus forecasts clustering around 2% full-year expansion. March nonfarm payrolls surged 178,000—beating expectations—while the Federal Reserve's March Summary of Economic Projections median holds at 2.4% real GDP growth, aligning with IMF and S&P Global estimates of 2.4% and 2.2%. Despite Q4 2025 revised to 0.5% and Atlanta Fed Q1 GDPNow softening to 1.3%, skin-in-the-game consensus dismisses contraction risks. Realistic challenges include sustained March CPI acceleration to 3.3% year-over-year delaying Fed rate cuts or a weak Q1 GDP advance estimate due late April signaling broader slowdown.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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