Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth of -0.3% to -0.1%, reflecting recent weakening leading indicators amid surging oil prices from Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict. The Bank of Japan's April 14 Tankan survey revealed manufacturers' confidence plunging by the most in over three years, while February industrial production fell 2.0% month-on-month—reversing January gains—and retail sales dropped 0.2% year-on-year, missing estimates and signaling soft private demand after Q4 2025's upwardly revised 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion. Positive outcomes like 1.2%+ at 27.6% persist on earlier forecasts such as JCER's 1.48% projection, but sentiment has shifted bearish; watch the May 19 preliminary GDP release for resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트1.2%+ 27.9%
0.0–0.2% 22%
0.9–1.1% 19.6%
-0.3– -0.1% 16%
신규
신규
2026.05.19
≤-0.4%
2%
-0.3– -0.1%
41%
0.0–0.2%
22%
0.3–0.5%
18%
0.6–0.8%
24%
0.9–1.1%
20%
1.2%+
28%
1.2%+ 27.9%
0.0–0.2% 22%
0.9–1.1% 19.6%
-0.3– -0.1% 16%
신규
신규
2026.05.19
≤-0.4%
$173 거래량
2%
-0.3– -0.1%
$123 거래량
41%
0.0–0.2%
$114 거래량
22%
0.3–0.5%
$84 거래량
18%
0.6–0.8%
$107 거래량
24%
0.9–1.1%
$106 거래량
20%
1.2%+
$593 거래량
28%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth of -0.3% to -0.1%, reflecting recent weakening leading indicators amid surging oil prices from Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict. The Bank of Japan's April 14 Tankan survey revealed manufacturers' confidence plunging by the most in over three years, while February industrial production fell 2.0% month-on-month—reversing January gains—and retail sales dropped 0.2% year-on-year, missing estimates and signaling soft private demand after Q4 2025's upwardly revised 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion. Positive outcomes like 1.2%+ at 27.6% persist on earlier forecasts such as JCER's 1.48% projection, but sentiment has shifted bearish; watch the May 19 preliminary GDP release for resolution.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
마켓 개설일: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
거래량
$1,300종료일
2026.05.19마켓 개설일
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth of -0.3% to -0.1%, reflecting recent weakening leading indicators amid surging oil prices from Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict. The Bank of Japan's April 14 Tankan survey revealed manufacturers' confidence plunging by the most in over three years, while February industrial production fell 2.0% month-on-month—reversing January gains—and retail sales dropped 0.2% year-on-year, missing estimates and signaling soft private demand after Q4 2025's upwardly revised 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion. Positive outcomes like 1.2%+ at 27.6% persist on earlier forecasts such as JCER's 1.48% projection, but sentiment has shifted bearish; watch the May 19 preliminary GDP release for resolution.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
거래량
$1,300종료일
2026.05.19마켓 개설일
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth of -0.3% to -0.1%, reflecting recent weakening leading indicators amid surging oil prices from Middle East tensions, including the Iran conflict. The Bank of Japan's April 14 Tankan survey revealed manufacturers' confidence plunging by the most in over three years, while February industrial production fell 2.0% month-on-month—reversing January gains—and retail sales dropped 0.2% year-on-year, missing estimates and signaling soft private demand after Q4 2025's upwardly revised 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion. Positive outcomes like 1.2%+ at 27.6% persist on earlier forecasts such as JCER's 1.48% projection, but sentiment has shifted bearish; watch the May 19 preliminary GDP release for resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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