Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability for Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 1.9%–2.2% year-over-year range, reflecting resilient household spending and a strong January economic activity expansion of 0.8% month-on-month—the fastest in a year—despite high Selic rates near 15%. The adjacent 1.5%–1.8% bin at 34% captures deceleration risks from March's PMI readings, with manufacturing at 49.0 (mild contraction easing) and services slipping to 50.1 amid inflation accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year on fuel and food pressures. Finance Minister Haddad's projection of up to 1% quarter-on-quarter Q1 growth supports the moderate upside, though full-year 2026 forecasts hover at 1.8% per central bank polls. IBGE's official release, due late April, remains the key catalyst.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트1.9%–2.2% 54.9%
1.5%–1.8% 35%
1.1%–1.4% 10.2%
<0.7% 3.8%
$17,245 거래량
$17,245 거래량
2026.05.29
<0.7%
4%
0.7%–1.0%
1%
1.1%–1.4%
10%
1.5%–1.8%
35%
1.9%–2.2%
55%
2.3%–2.6%
2%
≥2.7%
3%
1.9%–2.2% 54.9%
1.5%–1.8% 35%
1.1%–1.4% 10.2%
<0.7% 3.8%
$17,245 거래량
$17,245 거래량
2026.05.29
<0.7%
$13,717 거래량
4%
0.7%–1.0%
$218 거래량
1%
1.1%–1.4%
$273 거래량
10%
1.5%–1.8%
$705 거래량
35%
1.9%–2.2%
$559 거래량
55%
2.3%–2.6%
$267 거래량
2%
≥2.7%
$1,507 거래량
3%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability for Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 1.9%–2.2% year-over-year range, reflecting resilient household spending and a strong January economic activity expansion of 0.8% month-on-month—the fastest in a year—despite high Selic rates near 15%. The adjacent 1.5%–1.8% bin at 34% captures deceleration risks from March's PMI readings, with manufacturing at 49.0 (mild contraction easing) and services slipping to 50.1 amid inflation accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year on fuel and food pressures. Finance Minister Haddad's projection of up to 1% quarter-on-quarter Q1 growth supports the moderate upside, though full-year 2026 forecasts hover at 1.8% per central bank polls. IBGE's official release, due late April, remains the key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
마켓 개설일: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
거래량
$17,245종료일
2026.05.29마켓 개설일
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability for Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 1.9%–2.2% year-over-year range, reflecting resilient household spending and a strong January economic activity expansion of 0.8% month-on-month—the fastest in a year—despite high Selic rates near 15%. The adjacent 1.5%–1.8% bin at 34% captures deceleration risks from March's PMI readings, with manufacturing at 49.0 (mild contraction easing) and services slipping to 50.1 amid inflation accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year on fuel and food pressures. Finance Minister Haddad's projection of up to 1% quarter-on-quarter Q1 growth supports the moderate upside, though full-year 2026 forecasts hover at 1.8% per central bank polls. IBGE's official release, due late April, remains the key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
거래량
$17,245종료일
2026.05.29마켓 개설일
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability for Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth in the 1.9%–2.2% year-over-year range, reflecting resilient household spending and a strong January economic activity expansion of 0.8% month-on-month—the fastest in a year—despite high Selic rates near 15%. The adjacent 1.5%–1.8% bin at 34% captures deceleration risks from March's PMI readings, with manufacturing at 49.0 (mild contraction easing) and services slipping to 50.1 amid inflation accelerating to 4.14% year-over-year on fuel and food pressures. Finance Minister Haddad's projection of up to 1% quarter-on-quarter Q1 growth supports the moderate upside, though full-year 2026 forecasts hover at 1.8% per central bank polls. IBGE's official release, due late April, remains the key catalyst.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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