Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 53.5% implied probability to 0.1-0.3% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Germany in Q1 2026, reflecting the ifo Institute's recent nowcast of around 0.33% QoQ and Trading Economics' 0.3% forecast, bolstered by manufacturing PMI expansion to 52.2 in March from 50.9 in February amid rising exports. This positions the outcome as a modest continuation of Q4 2025's 0.3% rise, though 29% odds on 0.4-0.6% acknowledge upside potential from fiscal stimulus. Lower probabilities for contraction (9.7%) or stronger growth stem from Mideast supply disruptions and leading institutes slashing full-year 2026 GDP forecasts to 0.6% due to trade uncertainty. Flash GDP data due April 30 could catalyze shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트0.1-0.3% 52%
0.4-0.6% 29.0%
≤0.0% 9.7%
0.7-0.9% 4.9%
$18,745 거래량
$18,745 거래량
2026.04.30
≤0.0%
10%
0.1-0.3%
52%
0.4-0.6%
29%
0.7-0.9%
5%
1.0-1.2%
2%
1.3%+
2%
0.1-0.3% 52%
0.4-0.6% 29.0%
≤0.0% 9.7%
0.7-0.9% 4.9%
$18,745 거래량
$18,745 거래량
2026.04.30
≤0.0%
$1,135 거래량
10%
0.1-0.3%
$1,797 거래량
52%
0.4-0.6%
$13,936 거래량
29%
0.7-0.9%
$661 거래량
5%
1.0-1.2%
$568 거래량
2%
1.3%+
$649 거래량
2%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 53.5% implied probability to 0.1-0.3% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Germany in Q1 2026, reflecting the ifo Institute's recent nowcast of around 0.33% QoQ and Trading Economics' 0.3% forecast, bolstered by manufacturing PMI expansion to 52.2 in March from 50.9 in February amid rising exports. This positions the outcome as a modest continuation of Q4 2025's 0.3% rise, though 29% odds on 0.4-0.6% acknowledge upside potential from fiscal stimulus. Lower probabilities for contraction (9.7%) or stronger growth stem from Mideast supply disruptions and leading institutes slashing full-year 2026 GDP forecasts to 0.6% due to trade uncertainty. Flash GDP data due April 30 could catalyze shifts.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: Jan 30, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
거래량
$18,745종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Jan 30, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 53.5% implied probability to 0.1-0.3% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Germany in Q1 2026, reflecting the ifo Institute's recent nowcast of around 0.33% QoQ and Trading Economics' 0.3% forecast, bolstered by manufacturing PMI expansion to 52.2 in March from 50.9 in February amid rising exports. This positions the outcome as a modest continuation of Q4 2025's 0.3% rise, though 29% odds on 0.4-0.6% acknowledge upside potential from fiscal stimulus. Lower probabilities for contraction (9.7%) or stronger growth stem from Mideast supply disruptions and leading institutes slashing full-year 2026 GDP forecasts to 0.6% due to trade uncertainty. Flash GDP data due April 30 could catalyze shifts.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q1 of 2026, expected to be released on April 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$18,745종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Jan 30, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 53.5% implied probability to 0.1-0.3% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Germany in Q1 2026, reflecting the ifo Institute's recent nowcast of around 0.33% QoQ and Trading Economics' 0.3% forecast, bolstered by manufacturing PMI expansion to 52.2 in March from 50.9 in February amid rising exports. This positions the outcome as a modest continuation of Q4 2025's 0.3% rise, though 29% odds on 0.4-0.6% acknowledge upside potential from fiscal stimulus. Lower probabilities for contraction (9.7%) or stronger growth stem from Mideast supply disruptions and leading institutes slashing full-year 2026 GDP forecasts to 0.6% due to trade uncertainty. Flash GDP data due April 30 could catalyze shifts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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