Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth came in at a downward-revised 1.6% annualized rate, following 0.5% in Q4 2025, contributing to professional forecasters trimming their 2026 annual-average projection to 2.2%. This backdrop, alongside Middle East conflict-driven energy price spikes and persistent tariff effects, has tempered trader expectations for stronger expansion. Fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act and the post-shutdown rebound continue to underpin the 48.5% market-implied probability on growth above 2.5%, while labor market softening and inflation pressures from higher commodity costs weigh on the 1.5–2.5% ranges that together command roughly one-third of the odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트>2.5% 49%
1.5–2.0% 17.8%
2.0–2.5% 16%
1.0–1.5% 12.8%
$30,014 거래량
$30,014 거래량
2027.01.29
0.5% 미만
5%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
13%
1.5–2.0%
18%
2.0–2.5%
16%
>2.5%
49%
>2.5% 49%
1.5–2.0% 17.8%
2.0–2.5% 16%
1.0–1.5% 12.8%
$30,014 거래량
$30,014 거래량
2027.01.29
0.5% 미만
$4,111 거래량
5%
0.5–1.0%
$15,518 거래량
5%
1.0–1.5%
$1,936 거래량
13%
1.5–2.0%
$1,978 거래량
18%
2.0–2.5%
$2,150 거래량
16%
>2.5%
$4,320 거래량
49%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth came in at a downward-revised 1.6% annualized rate, following 0.5% in Q4 2025, contributing to professional forecasters trimming their 2026 annual-average projection to 2.2%. This backdrop, alongside Middle East conflict-driven energy price spikes and persistent tariff effects, has tempered trader expectations for stronger expansion. Fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act and the post-shutdown rebound continue to underpin the 48.5% market-implied probability on growth above 2.5%, while labor market softening and inflation pressures from higher commodity costs weigh on the 1.5–2.5% ranges that together command roughly one-third of the odds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
거래량
$30,014종료일
2027.01.29마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth came in at a downward-revised 1.6% annualized rate, following 0.5% in Q4 2025, contributing to professional forecasters trimming their 2026 annual-average projection to 2.2%. This backdrop, alongside Middle East conflict-driven energy price spikes and persistent tariff effects, has tempered trader expectations for stronger expansion. Fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act and the post-shutdown rebound continue to underpin the 48.5% market-implied probability on growth above 2.5%, while labor market softening and inflation pressures from higher commodity costs weigh on the 1.5–2.5% ranges that together command roughly one-third of the odds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$30,014종료일
2027.01.29마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth came in at a downward-revised 1.6% annualized rate, following 0.5% in Q4 2025, contributing to professional forecasters trimming their 2026 annual-average projection to 2.2%. This backdrop, alongside Middle East conflict-driven energy price spikes and persistent tariff effects, has tempered trader expectations for stronger expansion. Fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act and the post-shutdown rebound continue to underpin the 48.5% market-implied probability on growth above 2.5%, while labor market softening and inflation pressures from higher commodity costs weigh on the 1.5–2.5% ranges that together command roughly one-third of the odds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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