Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55.5% implied probability for 2026 U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting optimism for a rebound from Q4 2025's downwardly revised 0.5% annualized pace (third estimate, April 9), attributed to a prior government shutdown drag. Recent Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections (March 18) median at 2.4%, IMF Article IV outlook (April 2) at 2.4% q4/q4, and economist medians from Vanguard (2.3%) and Deloitte (2.2%) cluster near this threshold, bolstered by resilient consumer spending, steady unemployment near 4.4%, and anticipated deregulation incentives. Lower buckets (<2.0% totaling ~28%) price recession risks amid sticky core PCE inflation forecasts at 2.7%. Key catalyst: Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate due late April.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트>2.5% 55%
1.5–2.0% 11.6%
2.0–2.5% 10%
0.5% 미만 9.3%
$26,701 거래량
$26,701 거래량
2027.01.29
0.5% 미만
9%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
8%
1.5–2.0%
12%
2.0–2.5%
10%
>2.5%
55%
>2.5% 55%
1.5–2.0% 11.6%
2.0–2.5% 10%
0.5% 미만 9.3%
$26,701 거래량
$26,701 거래량
2027.01.29
0.5% 미만
$3,752 거래량
9%
0.5–1.0%
$15,052 거래량
5%
1.0–1.5%
$1,460 거래량
8%
1.5–2.0%
$1,277 거래량
12%
2.0–2.5%
$1,338 거래량
10%
>2.5%
$3,820 거래량
55%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55.5% implied probability for 2026 U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting optimism for a rebound from Q4 2025's downwardly revised 0.5% annualized pace (third estimate, April 9), attributed to a prior government shutdown drag. Recent Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections (March 18) median at 2.4%, IMF Article IV outlook (April 2) at 2.4% q4/q4, and economist medians from Vanguard (2.3%) and Deloitte (2.2%) cluster near this threshold, bolstered by resilient consumer spending, steady unemployment near 4.4%, and anticipated deregulation incentives. Lower buckets (<2.0% totaling ~28%) price recession risks amid sticky core PCE inflation forecasts at 2.7%. Key catalyst: Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate due late April.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
거래량
$26,701종료일
2027.01.29마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55.5% implied probability for 2026 U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting optimism for a rebound from Q4 2025's downwardly revised 0.5% annualized pace (third estimate, April 9), attributed to a prior government shutdown drag. Recent Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections (March 18) median at 2.4%, IMF Article IV outlook (April 2) at 2.4% q4/q4, and economist medians from Vanguard (2.3%) and Deloitte (2.2%) cluster near this threshold, bolstered by resilient consumer spending, steady unemployment near 4.4%, and anticipated deregulation incentives. Lower buckets (<2.0% totaling ~28%) price recession risks amid sticky core PCE inflation forecasts at 2.7%. Key catalyst: Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate due late April.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$26,701종료일
2027.01.29마켓 개설일
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55.5% implied probability for 2026 U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting optimism for a rebound from Q4 2025's downwardly revised 0.5% annualized pace (third estimate, April 9), attributed to a prior government shutdown drag. Recent Federal Reserve Summary of Economic Projections (March 18) median at 2.4%, IMF Article IV outlook (April 2) at 2.4% q4/q4, and economist medians from Vanguard (2.3%) and Deloitte (2.2%) cluster near this threshold, bolstered by resilient consumer spending, steady unemployment near 4.4%, and anticipated deregulation incentives. Lower buckets (<2.0% totaling ~28%) price recession risks amid sticky core PCE inflation forecasts at 2.7%. Key catalyst: Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate due late April.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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