Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 46% implied probability for Mexico Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.5-1.0% and 37% for 1.0-1.5%, reflecting closely contested sentiment amid mixed early-quarter indicators. January's Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica (IGAE) contracted 0.9% month-on-month, signaling a weak start, while gross fixed investment and private consumption both declined per INEGI data; February industrial production rebounded modestly at 0.4% month-on-month despite a 1.3% year-on-year drop, buoyed by manufacturing and exports. March S&P Global PMIs remained in contraction territory at 48.9 for manufacturing and 49.0 for services, tempering optimism despite resilient retail sales (+5.0% year-on-year in January). Full-year forecasts from IMF (1.6%) and Banxico (1.6%) imply modest recovery, but Q1 resolution hinges on INEGI's late-April quarterly release, with US demand and nearshoring as key swing factors.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트0.5-1.0% 47%
1.0-1.5% 37%
0.0-0.5% 8.1%
<0.0% 7.2%
신규
신규
2026.04.30
<0.0%
7%
0.0-0.5%
13%
0.5-1.0%
47%
1.0-1.5%
37%
1.5-2.0%
1%
2.0-2.5%
9%
>2.5%
4%
0.5-1.0% 47%
1.0-1.5% 37%
0.0-0.5% 8.1%
<0.0% 7.2%
신규
신규
2026.04.30
<0.0%
$431 거래량
7%
0.0-0.5%
$348 거래량
13%
0.5-1.0%
$567 거래량
47%
1.0-1.5%
$706 거래량
37%
1.5-2.0%
$408 거래량
1%
2.0-2.5%
$139 거래량
9%
>2.5%
$147 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 46% implied probability for Mexico Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.5-1.0% and 37% for 1.0-1.5%, reflecting closely contested sentiment amid mixed early-quarter indicators. January's Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica (IGAE) contracted 0.9% month-on-month, signaling a weak start, while gross fixed investment and private consumption both declined per INEGI data; February industrial production rebounded modestly at 0.4% month-on-month despite a 1.3% year-on-year drop, buoyed by manufacturing and exports. March S&P Global PMIs remained in contraction territory at 48.9 for manufacturing and 49.0 for services, tempering optimism despite resilient retail sales (+5.0% year-on-year in January). Full-year forecasts from IMF (1.6%) and Banxico (1.6%) imply modest recovery, but Q1 resolution hinges on INEGI's late-April quarterly release, with US demand and nearshoring as key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
마켓 개설일: Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
거래량
$2,745종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 46% implied probability for Mexico Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.5-1.0% and 37% for 1.0-1.5%, reflecting closely contested sentiment amid mixed early-quarter indicators. January's Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica (IGAE) contracted 0.9% month-on-month, signaling a weak start, while gross fixed investment and private consumption both declined per INEGI data; February industrial production rebounded modestly at 0.4% month-on-month despite a 1.3% year-on-year drop, buoyed by manufacturing and exports. March S&P Global PMIs remained in contraction territory at 48.9 for manufacturing and 49.0 for services, tempering optimism despite resilient retail sales (+5.0% year-on-year in January). Full-year forecasts from IMF (1.6%) and Banxico (1.6%) imply modest recovery, but Q1 resolution hinges on INEGI's late-April quarterly release, with US demand and nearshoring as key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
거래량
$2,745종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Jan 30, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 46% implied probability for Mexico Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.5-1.0% and 37% for 1.0-1.5%, reflecting closely contested sentiment amid mixed early-quarter indicators. January's Indicador Global de la Actividad Económica (IGAE) contracted 0.9% month-on-month, signaling a weak start, while gross fixed investment and private consumption both declined per INEGI data; February industrial production rebounded modestly at 0.4% month-on-month despite a 1.3% year-on-year drop, buoyed by manufacturing and exports. March S&P Global PMIs remained in contraction territory at 48.9 for manufacturing and 49.0 for services, tempering optimism despite resilient retail sales (+5.0% year-on-year in January). Full-year forecasts from IMF (1.6%) and Banxico (1.6%) imply modest recovery, but Q1 resolution hinges on INEGI's late-April quarterly release, with US demand and nearshoring as key swing factors.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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