Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a fragmented outlook for Q1 2026 US real GDP growth, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 17-18% across the 1.0–1.5%, 2.0–2.5%, and 1.5–2.0% bins, reflecting the Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast holding steady at 1.3% annualized as of April 9 amid a widening trade deficit that offset investment gains. This low-growth positioning builds on Q4 2025 GDP's downward revision to 0.5%, though counterbalanced by robust March ISM manufacturing PMI at 52.7 and Philadelphia Fed survey forecasts of 2.6%. Key swing factors include consumer spending resilience and net exports; upcoming retail sales data on April 21 could shift the nowcast ahead of the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate on April 30.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트1.0–1.5% 19.2%
2.0~2.5% 19.2%
1.5–2.0% 17.4%
2.5–3.0% 14.5%
$309,263 거래량
$309,263 거래량
2026.04.30
1.0% 미만
13%
1.0–1.5%
19%
1.5–2.0%
17%
2.0~2.5%
19%
2.5–3.0%
15%
3.0–3.5%
6%
≥3.5%
6%
1.0–1.5% 19.2%
2.0~2.5% 19.2%
1.5–2.0% 17.4%
2.5–3.0% 14.5%
$309,263 거래량
$309,263 거래량
2026.04.30
1.0% 미만
$30,259 거래량
13%
1.0–1.5%
$7,816 거래량
19%
1.5–2.0%
$30,719 거래량
17%
2.0~2.5%
$44,810 거래량
19%
2.5–3.0%
$25,824 거래량
15%
3.0–3.5%
$93,311 거래량
6%
≥3.5%
$76,525 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a fragmented outlook for Q1 2026 US real GDP growth, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 17-18% across the 1.0–1.5%, 2.0–2.5%, and 1.5–2.0% bins, reflecting the Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast holding steady at 1.3% annualized as of April 9 amid a widening trade deficit that offset investment gains. This low-growth positioning builds on Q4 2025 GDP's downward revision to 0.5%, though counterbalanced by robust March ISM manufacturing PMI at 52.7 and Philadelphia Fed survey forecasts of 2.6%. Key swing factors include consumer spending resilience and net exports; upcoming retail sales data on April 21 could shift the nowcast ahead of the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate on April 30.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
마켓 개설일: Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
거래량
$309,263종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a fragmented outlook for Q1 2026 US real GDP growth, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 17-18% across the 1.0–1.5%, 2.0–2.5%, and 1.5–2.0% bins, reflecting the Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast holding steady at 1.3% annualized as of April 9 amid a widening trade deficit that offset investment gains. This low-growth positioning builds on Q4 2025 GDP's downward revision to 0.5%, though counterbalanced by robust March ISM manufacturing PMI at 52.7 and Philadelphia Fed survey forecasts of 2.6%. Key swing factors include consumer spending resilience and net exports; upcoming retail sales data on April 21 could shift the nowcast ahead of the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate on April 30.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
거래량
$309,263종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a fragmented outlook for Q1 2026 US real GDP growth, with implied probabilities tightly clustered at 17-18% across the 1.0–1.5%, 2.0–2.5%, and 1.5–2.0% bins, reflecting the Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast holding steady at 1.3% annualized as of April 9 amid a widening trade deficit that offset investment gains. This low-growth positioning builds on Q4 2025 GDP's downward revision to 0.5%, though counterbalanced by robust March ISM manufacturing PMI at 52.7 and Philadelphia Fed survey forecasts of 2.6%. Key swing factors include consumer spending resilience and net exports; upcoming retail sales data on April 21 could shift the nowcast ahead of the Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate on April 30.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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