Polymarket traders assign a 35% implied probability to an April unemployment rate of 4.3%, closely tracking March's steady 4.3% reading from the Bureau of Labor Statistics report on April 3, where nonfarm payrolls surprisingly added 178,000 jobs against consensus estimates near 60,000–70,000. This beat tempered fears of rapid labor market deterioration despite February's prior contraction, anchoring sentiment around stability. However, initial jobless claims surged 16,000 to 219,000 for the week ending April 4—above expectations—elevating odds for a tick higher to 4.4% at 21%, signaling potential softening. ADP's March private payroll gain of just 62,000 further underscores cooling dynamics ahead of the May 1 nonfarm payrolls release.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트4.3% 35%
4.4% 21%
4.2% 17%
4.5% 11%
$13,669 거래량
$13,669 거래량
2026.05.08
≤3.9%
1%
4.0%
<1%
4.1%
7%
4.2%
17%
4.3%
40%
4.4%
21%
4.5%
11%
4.6%
4%
≥4.7%
4%
4.3% 35%
4.4% 21%
4.2% 17%
4.5% 11%
$13,669 거래량
$13,669 거래량
2026.05.08
≤3.9%
$1,215 거래량
1%
4.0%
$328 거래량
<1%
4.1%
$1,112 거래량
7%
4.2%
$1,371 거래량
17%
4.3%
$1,584 거래량
40%
4.4%
$4,185 거래량
21%
4.5%
$762 거래량
11%
4.6%
$1,039 거래량
4%
≥4.7%
$2,072 거래량
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a 35% implied probability to an April unemployment rate of 4.3%, closely tracking March's steady 4.3% reading from the Bureau of Labor Statistics report on April 3, where nonfarm payrolls surprisingly added 178,000 jobs against consensus estimates near 60,000–70,000. This beat tempered fears of rapid labor market deterioration despite February's prior contraction, anchoring sentiment around stability. However, initial jobless claims surged 16,000 to 219,000 for the week ending April 4—above expectations—elevating odds for a tick higher to 4.4% at 21%, signaling potential softening. ADP's March private payroll gain of just 62,000 further underscores cooling dynamics ahead of the May 1 nonfarm payrolls release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
마켓 개설일: Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ET
거래량
$13,669종료일
2026.05.08마켓 개설일
Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a 35% implied probability to an April unemployment rate of 4.3%, closely tracking March's steady 4.3% reading from the Bureau of Labor Statistics report on April 3, where nonfarm payrolls surprisingly added 178,000 jobs against consensus estimates near 60,000–70,000. This beat tempered fears of rapid labor market deterioration despite February's prior contraction, anchoring sentiment around stability. However, initial jobless claims surged 16,000 to 219,000 for the week ending April 4—above expectations—elevating odds for a tick higher to 4.4% at 21%, signaling potential softening. ADP's March private payroll gain of just 62,000 further underscores cooling dynamics ahead of the May 1 nonfarm payrolls release.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
거래량
$13,669종료일
2026.05.08마켓 개설일
Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a 35% implied probability to an April unemployment rate of 4.3%, closely tracking March's steady 4.3% reading from the Bureau of Labor Statistics report on April 3, where nonfarm payrolls surprisingly added 178,000 jobs against consensus estimates near 60,000–70,000. This beat tempered fears of rapid labor market deterioration despite February's prior contraction, anchoring sentiment around stability. However, initial jobless claims surged 16,000 to 219,000 for the week ending April 4—above expectations—elevating odds for a tick higher to 4.4% at 21%, signaling potential softening. ADP's March private payroll gain of just 62,000 further underscores cooling dynamics ahead of the May 1 nonfarm payrolls release.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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