Fed decision in April?

Name: Fed decision in April?
Start: 2025-11-13T00:40:50.267Z
End: 2026-04-29T00:00:00.000Z

Economy·Economic Policy

Fed decision in April?

Apr 29

Jun 17

Jul 29

Apr 29

Jun 17

Jul 29

No change 99.8%

25 bps decrease <1%

50+ bps decrease <1%

25+ bps increase <1%

$216,924,881 Vol.

Apr 29, 2026

50+ bps decrease

$61,001,390 Vol.

<1%

25 bps decrease

$47,784,730 Vol.

<1%

No change

$54,233,431 Vol.

100%

25+ bps increase

$54,060,290 Vol.

<1%

No change 99.8%

25 bps decrease <1%

50+ bps decrease <1%

25+ bps increase <1%

$216,924,881 Vol.

Apr 29, 2026

50+ bps decrease

$61,001,390 Vol.

<1%

25 bps decrease

$47,784,730 Vol.

<1%

No change

$54,233,431 Vol.

100%

25+ bps increase

$54,060,290 Vol.

<1%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.9% implied probability for no change in the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% ahead of today's April 29 FOMC policy decision, reflecting resilient economic data and persistent inflation pressures that have solidified the pause narrative. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—driven by soaring energy costs amid Middle East conflicts, while nonfarm payrolls rebounded with 178,000 jobs added, signaling labor market strength. The March FOMC statement reinforced this stance, with officials wary of cutting amid upside inflation risks. Realistic challenges include a surprise hawkish pivot if incoming data reveals hotter-than-expected inflation, though Chair Powell's final press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT is unlikely to alter the consensus. Next catalysts: May 6 jobs report and June FOMC projections.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated Apr 29, 2026, 10:32 AM UTC

Apr 29 2026

FOMC statement released confirming no change in the target federal funds rate, finalizing the market’s zero probability for a 25 bps decrease

Apr 28 2026

FOMC meeting statement confirms no large rate cut in April 2026, finalizing market consensus at zero probability for 50+ bps decrease

50+ bps decrease dips to 0%1%

The official Fed decision and statement ended speculation of a large cut, resolving the market to zero.

Apr 20 2026

Fed’s April pre‑meeting speech emphasizes “data‑dependent” approach, no hint of a cut – In the days before the April 28‑29 meeting, Powell’s remarks underscored that any policy

No change rises to 100%1%

Fed’s April pre‑meeting speech emphasizes “data‑dependent” approach, no hint of a cut – In the days before the April 28‑29 meeting, Powell’s remarks underscored that any policy move would be driven by data, with no indication of easing, pushing the “no‑change” probability to its ceiling.

Apr 20 2026

Ahead of the April 28‑29 meeting, analysts note “divisions at the Fed” and a “solid pace of job gains but still‑elevated inflation,” keeping the odds of a 25‑bp hike near zero and

25+ bps increase dips to 0%1%

Ahead of the April 28‑29 meeting, analysts note “divisions at the Fed” and a “solid pace of job gains but still‑elevated inflation,” keeping the odds of a 25‑bp hike near zero and driving the outcome

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated Apr 29, 2026, 10:32 AM UTC

Apr 29 2026

FOMC statement released confirming no change in the target federal funds rate, finalizing the market’s zero probability for a 25 bps decrease

Apr 28 2026

FOMC meeting statement confirms no large rate cut in April 2026, finalizing market consensus at zero probability for 50+ bps decrease

50+ bps decrease dips to 0%1%

The official Fed decision and statement ended speculation of a large cut, resolving the market to zero.

Apr 20 2026

Fed’s April pre‑meeting speech emphasizes “data‑dependent” approach, no hint of a cut – In the days before the April 28‑29 meeting, Powell’s remarks underscored that any policy

No change rises to 100%1%

Apr 20 2026

Ahead of the April 28‑29 meeting, analysts note “divisions at the Fed” and a “solid pace of job gains but still‑elevated inflation,” keeping the odds of a 25‑bp hike near zero and

25+ bps increase dips to 0%1%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Fed decision in April?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No change" at 100%, followed by "50+ bps decrease" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Fed decision in April?" has generated $216.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Fed decision in April?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Fed decision in April?" is "No change" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "50+ bps decrease" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Fed decision in April?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Fed decision in April?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $216.9 million traded on “Fed decision in April?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

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On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "No change" in the "Fed decision in April?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "No change" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Fed decision in April?" market's scheduled end date has passed, but the market has not yet been officially resolved. The end date indicates when the underlying event is expected to occur or become knowable. It is not the moment trading stops. The market remains open for trading until the outcome is formally resolved through the resolution process. You can still buy, sell, or close your position while the market is pending resolution. Check the resolution status tracker and "Rules" section on this page for updates on the resolution timeline.

The "Fed decision in April?" market has an active community of 8,105 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

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Fed decision in April?

Fed decision in April?

Rules

Market Context

Rules

Market Context

Comments (8,105)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

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