Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (99.7%) for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75% across the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, aligning closely with CME FedWatch Tool probabilities exceeding 99% for an April hold. This strong positioning stems from confirmed pauses in the January 27-28 and March 17-18 decisions, bolstered by resilient labor market data—such as initial jobless claims holding near 219,000—and sticky inflation metrics, including February PCE at 2.8% year-over-year, well above the 2% target. Fed Chair Powell's recent communications emphasize awaiting further progress on price stability before cuts. With the April 28-29 meeting imminent, realistic challenges include a surprise downside surprise in pre-meeting jobless claims or consumer sentiment, though recent economic firmness leaves little room for deviation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFed decisions (Jan-Apr)
Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)
Pause–Pause–Pause 99.6%
Other <1%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$663,652 Vol.
$663,652 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
100%
Other
<1%
Pause–Pause–Cut
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause 99.6%
Other <1%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$663,652 Vol.
$663,652 Vol.
Apr 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$102,630 Vol.
100%
Other
$279,717 Vol.
<1%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$241,319 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (99.7%) for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75% across the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, aligning closely with CME FedWatch Tool probabilities exceeding 99% for an April hold. This strong positioning stems from confirmed pauses in the January 27-28 and March 17-18 decisions, bolstered by resilient labor market data—such as initial jobless claims holding near 219,000—and sticky inflation metrics, including February PCE at 2.8% year-over-year, well above the 2% target. Fed Chair Powell's recent communications emphasize awaiting further progress on price stability before cuts. With the April 28-29 meeting imminent, realistic challenges include a surprise downside surprise in pre-meeting jobless claims or consumer sentiment, though recent economic firmness leaves little room for deviation.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
Volume
$663,652End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (99.7%) for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75% across the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, aligning closely with CME FedWatch Tool probabilities exceeding 99% for an April hold. This strong positioning stems from confirmed pauses in the January 27-28 and March 17-18 decisions, bolstered by resilient labor market data—such as initial jobless claims holding near 219,000—and sticky inflation metrics, including February PCE at 2.8% year-over-year, well above the 2% target. Fed Chair Powell's recent communications emphasize awaiting further progress on price stability before cuts. With the April 28-29 meeting imminent, realistic challenges include a surprise downside surprise in pre-meeting jobless claims or consumer sentiment, though recent economic firmness leaves little room for deviation.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$663,652End Date
Apr 29, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty (99.7%) for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75% across the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, aligning closely with CME FedWatch Tool probabilities exceeding 99% for an April hold. This strong positioning stems from confirmed pauses in the January 27-28 and March 17-18 decisions, bolstered by resilient labor market data—such as initial jobless claims holding near 219,000—and sticky inflation metrics, including February PCE at 2.8% year-over-year, well above the 2% target. Fed Chair Powell's recent communications emphasize awaiting further progress on price stability before cuts. With the April 28-29 meeting imminent, realistic challenges include a surprise downside surprise in pre-meeting jobless claims or consumer sentiment, though recent economic firmness leaves little room for deviation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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