Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability for a 25 basis points ECB deposit rate hike in June 2026, driven by persistent Eurozone inflation above the 2% target and sticky core measures amid robust wage growth and services sector pressures. October flash CPI rose to 2.0% headline from 1.8% in September, with core inflation at 2.7%, fueling concerns over reacceleration risks despite the ECB's 25 basis points cut to 3.25% on October 17. President Lagarde emphasized a data-dependent path with upside inflation forecasts in updated staff projections, while strong PMIs and low unemployment underscore economic resilience. Traders eye December 12 FOMC-equivalent ECB meeting and November CPI release on December 2 for near-term signals, with fiscal expansions in key economies like Germany adding upward pressure on rate expectations versus no-change odds at 24%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
25 bps Increase 67%
No change 24%
50+ bps increase 4.9%
25 bps decrease 3.1%
NEW
NEW
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
24%
25 bps Increase
67%
50+ bps increase
5%
25 bps Increase 67%
No change 24%
50+ bps increase 4.9%
25 bps decrease 3.1%
NEW
NEW
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$0 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$575 Vol.
3%
No change
$754 Vol.
24%
25 bps Increase
$690 Vol.
67%
50+ bps increase
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability for a 25 basis points ECB deposit rate hike in June 2026, driven by persistent Eurozone inflation above the 2% target and sticky core measures amid robust wage growth and services sector pressures. October flash CPI rose to 2.0% headline from 1.8% in September, with core inflation at 2.7%, fueling concerns over reacceleration risks despite the ECB's 25 basis points cut to 3.25% on October 17. President Lagarde emphasized a data-dependent path with upside inflation forecasts in updated staff projections, while strong PMIs and low unemployment underscore economic resilience. Traders eye December 12 FOMC-equivalent ECB meeting and November CPI release on December 2 for near-term signals, with fiscal expansions in key economies like Germany adding upward pressure on rate expectations versus no-change odds at 24%.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$2,019End Date
Jun 11, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability for a 25 basis points ECB deposit rate hike in June 2026, driven by persistent Eurozone inflation above the 2% target and sticky core measures amid robust wage growth and services sector pressures. October flash CPI rose to 2.0% headline from 1.8% in September, with core inflation at 2.7%, fueling concerns over reacceleration risks despite the ECB's 25 basis points cut to 3.25% on October 17. President Lagarde emphasized a data-dependent path with upside inflation forecasts in updated staff projections, while strong PMIs and low unemployment underscore economic resilience. Traders eye December 12 FOMC-equivalent ECB meeting and November CPI release on December 2 for near-term signals, with fiscal expansions in key economies like Germany adding upward pressure on rate expectations versus no-change odds at 24%.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volume
$2,019End Date
Jun 11, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability for a 25 basis points ECB deposit rate hike in June 2026, driven by persistent Eurozone inflation above the 2% target and sticky core measures amid robust wage growth and services sector pressures. October flash CPI rose to 2.0% headline from 1.8% in September, with core inflation at 2.7%, fueling concerns over reacceleration risks despite the ECB's 25 basis points cut to 3.25% on October 17. President Lagarde emphasized a data-dependent path with upside inflation forecasts in updated staff projections, while strong PMIs and low unemployment underscore economic resilience. Traders eye December 12 FOMC-equivalent ECB meeting and November CPI release on December 2 for near-term signals, with fiscal expansions in key economies like Germany adding upward pressure on rate expectations versus no-change odds at 24%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions