Recent Chinese Commerce Ministry statements on September 10 signal strong momentum toward reciprocal tariff reductions on $30 billion in goods per side, with negotiators targeting implementation at an early date through the bilateral Board of Trade. This builds on prior 2025-2026 truces that suspended higher levies and established formal consultation channels, fueling trader expectations of a mutual agreement ahead of the December 31 deadline. The upcoming Trump-Xi summit in Washington on September 24 is positioned as a key catalyst for announcements, reflecting sustained diplomatic efforts to stabilize bilateral trade amid ongoing Section 301 reviews and purchase commitments. These verifiable developments underpin the 87.5% implied probability for Yes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated88% chance
$247,524 Vol.
$247,524 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
88% chance
$247,524 Vol.
$247,524 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent Chinese Commerce Ministry statements on September 10 signal strong momentum toward reciprocal tariff reductions on $30 billion in goods per side, with negotiators targeting implementation at an early date through the bilateral Board of Trade. This builds on prior 2025-2026 truces that suspended higher levies and established formal consultation channels, fueling trader expectations of a mutual agreement ahead of the December 31 deadline. The upcoming Trump-Xi summit in Washington on September 24 is positioned as a key catalyst for announcements, reflecting sustained diplomatic efforts to stabilize bilateral trade amid ongoing Section 301 reviews and purchase commitments. These verifiable developments underpin the 87.5% implied probability for Yes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volume
$247,524End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent Chinese Commerce Ministry statements on September 10 signal strong momentum toward reciprocal tariff reductions on $30 billion in goods per side, with negotiators targeting implementation at an early date through the bilateral Board of Trade. This builds on prior 2025-2026 truces that suspended higher levies and established formal consultation channels, fueling trader expectations of a mutual agreement ahead of the December 31 deadline. The upcoming Trump-Xi summit in Washington on September 24 is positioned as a key catalyst for announcements, reflecting sustained diplomatic efforts to stabilize bilateral trade amid ongoing Section 301 reviews and purchase commitments. These verifiable developments underpin the 87.5% implied probability for Yes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$247,524End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Chinese Commerce Ministry statements on September 10 signal strong momentum toward reciprocal tariff reductions on $30 billion in goods per side, with negotiators targeting implementation at an early date through the bilateral Board of Trade. This builds on prior 2025-2026 truces that suspended higher levies and established formal consultation channels, fueling trader expectations of a mutual agreement ahead of the December 31 deadline. The upcoming Trump-Xi summit in Washington on September 24 is positioned as a key catalyst for announcements, reflecting sustained diplomatic efforts to stabilize bilateral trade amid ongoing Section 301 reviews and purchase commitments. These verifiable developments underpin the 87.5% implied probability for Yes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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