US and Chinese officials have advanced bilateral trade talks through established mechanisms including the U.S.-China Board of Trade, created during the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, alongside ongoing discussions on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods. Recent developments include preparations for the September 24 leaders' meeting in Washington, where negotiators are addressing cuts on energy, agricultural products, and manufacturing inputs, plus China's commitments to relax export controls and lift retaliatory agricultural tariffs. These steps build on the 2025 Busan agreement and its one-year truce extensions, which have kept average tariff rates stable near 36.5% for the U.S. and 31% for China while capping further increases. Trader consensus at 88% for a formal mutual tariff agreement by December 31 reflects the pace of these negotiations and scheduled diplomatic engagements that could produce an announced framework well before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated88% chance
$251,834 Vol.
$251,834 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
88% chance
$251,834 Vol.
$251,834 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.US and Chinese officials have advanced bilateral trade talks through established mechanisms including the U.S.-China Board of Trade, created during the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, alongside ongoing discussions on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods. Recent developments include preparations for the September 24 leaders' meeting in Washington, where negotiators are addressing cuts on energy, agricultural products, and manufacturing inputs, plus China's commitments to relax export controls and lift retaliatory agricultural tariffs. These steps build on the 2025 Busan agreement and its one-year truce extensions, which have kept average tariff rates stable near 36.5% for the U.S. and 31% for China while capping further increases. Trader consensus at 88% for a formal mutual tariff agreement by December 31 reflects the pace of these negotiations and scheduled diplomatic engagements that could produce an announced framework well before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volume
$251,834End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.US and Chinese officials have advanced bilateral trade talks through established mechanisms including the U.S.-China Board of Trade, created during the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, alongside ongoing discussions on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods. Recent developments include preparations for the September 24 leaders' meeting in Washington, where negotiators are addressing cuts on energy, agricultural products, and manufacturing inputs, plus China's commitments to relax export controls and lift retaliatory agricultural tariffs. These steps build on the 2025 Busan agreement and its one-year truce extensions, which have kept average tariff rates stable near 36.5% for the U.S. and 31% for China while capping further increases. Trader consensus at 88% for a formal mutual tariff agreement by December 31 reflects the pace of these negotiations and scheduled diplomatic engagements that could produce an announced framework well before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$251,834End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Chinese officials have advanced bilateral trade talks through established mechanisms including the U.S.-China Board of Trade, created during the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit, alongside ongoing discussions on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods. Recent developments include preparations for the September 24 leaders' meeting in Washington, where negotiators are addressing cuts on energy, agricultural products, and manufacturing inputs, plus China's commitments to relax export controls and lift retaliatory agricultural tariffs. These steps build on the 2025 Busan agreement and its one-year truce extensions, which have kept average tariff rates stable near 36.5% for the U.S. and 31% for China while capping further increases. Trader consensus at 88% for a formal mutual tariff agreement by December 31 reflects the pace of these negotiations and scheduled diplomatic engagements that could produce an announced framework well before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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