Traders assign a 93.8% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2026 due primarily to U.S. intelligence assessments indicating Beijing lacks both a fixed timeline and current intent for full-scale military action. The March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment concluded that the PRC is unlikely to attempt an invasion in 2027 and will instead rely on coercive measures such as military drills, airspace incursions, and diplomatic isolation. Recent developments reinforce this view, including reduced PLA sorties near Taiwan in early 2026, opposition KMT engagement with Beijing, Taiwan’s passage of additional defense funding, and U.S.-China discussions emphasizing avoidance of conflict. These factors reflect a pattern of calibrated pressure short of war rather than preparation for imminent amphibious operations.