Traders assign a 93.8% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline for unification and prefers sustained coercive measures short of kinetic conflict. The March 2026 ODNI threat assessment explicitly judged an invasion in 2027 unlikely, citing ongoing military modernization without corresponding large-scale mobilization. Recent months have featured reduced PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ, resumed limited cross-strait economic and flight ties following the opposition KMT leader’s April visit to the mainland, and routine coast-guard patrols near Kinmen rather than escalation. Focus has shifted toward Taiwan’s 2028 elections and diplomatic signaling, with no verified preparations or statements indicating imminent offensive action within the market’s resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$34,718,671 交易量
$34,718,671 交易量
是
$34,718,671 交易量
$34,718,671 交易量
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign a 93.8% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline for unification and prefers sustained coercive measures short of kinetic conflict. The March 2026 ODNI threat assessment explicitly judged an invasion in 2027 unlikely, citing ongoing military modernization without corresponding large-scale mobilization. Recent months have featured reduced PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ, resumed limited cross-strait economic and flight ties following the opposition KMT leader’s April visit to the mainland, and routine coast-guard patrols near Kinmen rather than escalation. Focus has shifted toward Taiwan’s 2028 elections and diplomatic signaling, with no verified preparations or statements indicating imminent offensive action within the market’s resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题