US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI threat report, state that Chinese leaders lack a fixed unification timeline or current plans for invading Taiwan, instead prioritizing coercive gray-zone measures such as PLA air and naval incursions, joint exercises, and diplomatic isolation. Recent developments through mid-2026 show continued routine military activity without large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or force posture shifts signaling imminent operations. Diplomatic engagement, including the April 2026 KMT opposition visit to Beijing and resumed cross-strait flights, alongside stable economic ties, has reinforced the status quo. Traders price the low 6.2% probability of invasion by December 31, 2026, on these factors plus high logistical risks and potential external deterrence.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici la fin de 2026 ?
Oui
$34,721,243 Vol.
$34,721,243 Vol.
Oui
$34,721,243 Vol.
$34,721,243 Vol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Résolveur
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Résolveur
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI threat report, state that Chinese leaders lack a fixed unification timeline or current plans for invading Taiwan, instead prioritizing coercive gray-zone measures such as PLA air and naval incursions, joint exercises, and diplomatic isolation. Recent developments through mid-2026 show continued routine military activity without large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or force posture shifts signaling imminent operations. Diplomatic engagement, including the April 2026 KMT opposition visit to Beijing and resumed cross-strait flights, alongside stable economic ties, has reinforced the status quo. Traders price the low 6.2% probability of invasion by December 31, 2026, on these factors plus high logistical risks and potential external deterrence.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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