**Traders assign a 93.8% implied probability to “No” because verifiable developments through mid-June 2026 show sustained gray-zone pressure rather than the large-scale mobilization or official rhetoric required for a full invasion of Taiwan by year-end.** Chinese forces conducted 217 air-defense identification zone incursions in May and repeated coast-guard entries near Kinmen and Pratas, yet these numbers remain below prior peaks and lack accompanying amphibious or logistical buildups. The May Trump-Xi summit featured standard warnings on Taiwan without triggering crisis alerts, while Taiwan maintained routine international engagement, including APEC participation, and advanced asymmetric defense programs. Analysts note the logistical and economic barriers to mounting an invasion within the narrow remaining window, reinforcing the market’s assessment that such an offensive is unlikely before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВторгнется ли Китай на Тайвань к концу 2026 года?
Вторгнется ли Китай на Тайвань к концу 2026 года?
Да
$34,731,461 Объем
$34,731,461 Объем
Да
$34,731,461 Объем
$34,731,461 Объем
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Кто определяет исход
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
**Traders assign a 93.8% implied probability to “No” because verifiable developments through mid-June 2026 show sustained gray-zone pressure rather than the large-scale mobilization or official rhetoric required for a full invasion of Taiwan by year-end.** Chinese forces conducted 217 air-defense identification zone incursions in May and repeated coast-guard entries near Kinmen and Pratas, yet these numbers remain below prior peaks and lack accompanying amphibious or logistical buildups. The May Trump-Xi summit featured standard warnings on Taiwan without triggering crisis alerts, while Taiwan maintained routine international engagement, including APEC participation, and advanced asymmetric defense programs. Analysts note the logistical and economic barriers to mounting an invasion within the narrow remaining window, reinforcing the market’s assessment that such an offensive is unlikely before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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