Traders assign a 92.7% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2026, reflecting sustained U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current intent for amphibious operations and views forceful unification as high-risk. Recent developments reinforce this view, including routine People’s Liberation Army air defense identification zone incursions and China Coast Guard patrols through May 2026 without escalation to blockade or landing preparations. Taiwan has advanced deterrence through additional defense spending and precision-strike capabilities, while U.S. arms packages and alliances continue. Diplomatic and military posturing persists amid cross-strait tensions, but primary sources indicate Beijing prioritizes non-kinetic pressure over invasion in the near term.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$34,078,640 交易量
$34,078,640 交易量
是
$34,078,640 交易量
$34,078,640 交易量
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign a 92.7% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2026, reflecting sustained U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current intent for amphibious operations and views forceful unification as high-risk. Recent developments reinforce this view, including routine People’s Liberation Army air defense identification zone incursions and China Coast Guard patrols through May 2026 without escalation to blockade or landing preparations. Taiwan has advanced deterrence through additional defense spending and precision-strike capabilities, while U.S. arms packages and alliances continue. Diplomatic and military posturing persists amid cross-strait tensions, but primary sources indicate Beijing prioritizes non-kinetic pressure over invasion in the near term.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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