Traders assign a 93.2% implied probability that no military clash occurs before 2027 because China has sustained gray-zone pressure through coast guard patrols, blockade simulations, and routine air and naval activity around Taiwan rather than crossing into direct conflict. Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang drills, featuring the largest reservist mobilization and tests of decentralized command and production relocation, underscore defensive preparations amid these tensions without triggering escalation. Recent diplomatic exchanges, including opposition-party engagement with Beijing and allied statements on costs, further reinforce deterrence. The consensus views full-scale invasion as constrained by economic risks, U.S. and partner signaling, and the absence of an immediate trigger before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$3,211,864 Vol.
$3,211,864 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$3,211,864 Vol.
$3,211,864 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 93.2% implied probability that no military clash occurs before 2027 because China has sustained gray-zone pressure through coast guard patrols, blockade simulations, and routine air and naval activity around Taiwan rather than crossing into direct conflict. Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang drills, featuring the largest reservist mobilization and tests of decentralized command and production relocation, underscore defensive preparations amid these tensions without triggering escalation. Recent diplomatic exchanges, including opposition-party engagement with Beijing and allied statements on costs, further reinforce deterrence. The consensus views full-scale invasion as constrained by economic risks, U.S. and partner signaling, and the absence of an immediate trigger before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$3,211,864End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 93.2% implied probability that no military clash occurs before 2027 because China has sustained gray-zone pressure through coast guard patrols, blockade simulations, and routine air and naval activity around Taiwan rather than crossing into direct conflict. Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang drills, featuring the largest reservist mobilization and tests of decentralized command and production relocation, underscore defensive preparations amid these tensions without triggering escalation. Recent diplomatic exchanges, including opposition-party engagement with Beijing and allied statements on costs, further reinforce deterrence. The consensus views full-scale invasion as constrained by economic risks, U.S. and partner signaling, and the absence of an immediate trigger before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,211,864End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 93.2% implied probability that no military clash occurs before 2027 because China has sustained gray-zone pressure through coast guard patrols, blockade simulations, and routine air and naval activity around Taiwan rather than crossing into direct conflict. Taiwan’s August 2026 Han Kuang drills, featuring the largest reservist mobilization and tests of decentralized command and production relocation, underscore defensive preparations amid these tensions without triggering escalation. Recent diplomatic exchanges, including opposition-party engagement with Beijing and allied statements on costs, further reinforce deterrence. The consensus views full-scale invasion as constrained by economic risks, U.S. and partner signaling, and the absence of an immediate trigger before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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