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Politics·Taiwan

Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner

icon for Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner
Politics·Taiwan

Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner

Chen Yu-jen 88%

Li Wen-liang 11%

Liang Wen-tao 1.5%

Yang Cheng-wu <1%

Polymarket
NEW

Chen Yu-jen 88%

Li Wen-liang 11%

Liang Wen-tao 1.5%

Yang Cheng-wu <1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Chen Yu-jen

Chen Yu-jen

$1,926 Vol.

88%

icon for Li Wen-liang

Li Wen-liang

$376 Vol.

11%

icon for Liang Wen-tao

Liang Wen-tao

$245 Vol.

2%

icon for Yang Cheng-wu

Yang Cheng-wu

$246 Vol.

1%

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Chen Yu-jen holds the leading implied probability in the Kinmen County Magistrate race due to her March 2026 nomination as the sole Kuomintang candidate for the November 28, 2026, local elections. As the incumbent Legislative Yuan representative for Kinmen, she secured 65 percent of the vote in 2024 and benefits from the county’s established KMT voting patterns, where the party has long dominated magistrate contests and the DPP has fielded no official candidate in recent cycles. Other listed contenders, including Li Wen-liang, remain at far lower levels amid limited visible campaign activity or party backing. The current trader consensus reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major competing nominations or shifts in local alignments since the KMT selection.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$2,793
End Date
Nov 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 9:04 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).Chen Yu-jen holds the leading implied probability in the Kinmen County Magistrate race due to her March 2026 nomination as the sole Kuomintang candidate for the November 28, 2026, local elections. As the incumbent Legislative Yuan representative for Kinmen, she secured 65 percent of the vote in 2024 and benefits from the county’s established KMT voting patterns, where the party has long dominated magistrate contests and the DPP has fielded no official candidate in recent cycles. Other listed contenders, including Li Wen-liang, remain at far lower levels amid limited visible campaign activity or party backing. The current trader consensus reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major competing nominations or shifts in local alignments since the KMT selection.

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Volume
$2,793
End Date
Nov 28, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 9:04 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Kinmen County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Chen Yu-jen" at 88%, followed by "Li Wen-liang" at 11%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 88¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner" is "Chen Yu-jen" at 88%, meaning the market assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Li Wen-liang" at 11%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.