US allies remain bound by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and bilateral security arrangements that emphasize extended deterrence over independent arsenals. Recent public discussions in South Korea, Poland, and Germany have centered on potential nuclear sharing or latency options amid regional threats, yet no ally has initiated or advanced an active weapons program. Official statements from allied leaders continue to affirm nonproliferation commitments, while US policy prioritizes alliance cohesion and opposes new proliferation. The compressed timeline to 2027 leaves insufficient scope for any state to overcome technical, diplomatic, and verification hurdles. These factors sustain strong trader consensus against acquisition.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$51,592 Объем
$51,592 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$51,592 Объем
$51,592 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US allies remain bound by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and bilateral security arrangements that emphasize extended deterrence over independent arsenals. Recent public discussions in South Korea, Poland, and Germany have centered on potential nuclear sharing or latency options amid regional threats, yet no ally has initiated or advanced an active weapons program. Official statements from allied leaders continue to affirm nonproliferation commitments, while US policy prioritizes alliance cohesion and opposes new proliferation. The compressed timeline to 2027 leaves insufficient scope for any state to overcome technical, diplomatic, and verification hurdles. These factors sustain strong trader consensus against acquisition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Объем
$51,592Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US allies remain bound by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and bilateral security arrangements that emphasize extended deterrence over independent arsenals. Recent public discussions in South Korea, Poland, and Germany have centered on potential nuclear sharing or latency options amid regional threats, yet no ally has initiated or advanced an active weapons program. Official statements from allied leaders continue to affirm nonproliferation commitments, while US policy prioritizes alliance cohesion and opposes new proliferation. The compressed timeline to 2027 leaves insufficient scope for any state to overcome technical, diplomatic, and verification hurdles. These factors sustain strong trader consensus against acquisition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$51,592Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US allies remain bound by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and bilateral security arrangements that emphasize extended deterrence over independent arsenals. Recent public discussions in South Korea, Poland, and Germany have centered on potential nuclear sharing or latency options amid regional threats, yet no ally has initiated or advanced an active weapons program. Official statements from allied leaders continue to affirm nonproliferation commitments, while US policy prioritizes alliance cohesion and opposes new proliferation. The compressed timeline to 2027 leaves insufficient scope for any state to overcome technical, diplomatic, and verification hurdles. These factors sustain strong trader consensus against acquisition.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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