No US ally maintains an active indigenous nuclear weapons program capable of producing a deliverable device before the end of 2026. While South Korea and Japan have seen public debate over extended deterrence reliability amid North Korean and Chinese capabilities, both governments continue to affirm reliance on the US nuclear umbrella without launching weapons programs. Existing NATO nuclear-sharing arrangements involve only US-owned warheads under alliance control, not independent acquisition. Nuclear development timelines historically require years from decision to capability, and no recent official announcements, legislative actions, or technical milestones indicate accelerated timelines among treaty allies that could shift the near-term outlook.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$51,592 交易量
$51,592 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$51,592 交易量
$51,592 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
No US ally maintains an active indigenous nuclear weapons program capable of producing a deliverable device before the end of 2026. While South Korea and Japan have seen public debate over extended deterrence reliability amid North Korean and Chinese capabilities, both governments continue to affirm reliance on the US nuclear umbrella without launching weapons programs. Existing NATO nuclear-sharing arrangements involve only US-owned warheads under alliance control, not independent acquisition. Nuclear development timelines historically require years from decision to capability, and no recent official announcements, legislative actions, or technical milestones indicate accelerated timelines among treaty allies that could shift the near-term outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
交易量
$51,592结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
No US ally maintains an active indigenous nuclear weapons program capable of producing a deliverable device before the end of 2026. While South Korea and Japan have seen public debate over extended deterrence reliability amid North Korean and Chinese capabilities, both governments continue to affirm reliance on the US nuclear umbrella without launching weapons programs. Existing NATO nuclear-sharing arrangements involve only US-owned warheads under alliance control, not independent acquisition. Nuclear development timelines historically require years from decision to capability, and no recent official announcements, legislative actions, or technical milestones indicate accelerated timelines among treaty allies that could shift the near-term outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$51,592结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No US ally maintains an active indigenous nuclear weapons program capable of producing a deliverable device before the end of 2026. While South Korea and Japan have seen public debate over extended deterrence reliability amid North Korean and Chinese capabilities, both governments continue to affirm reliance on the US nuclear umbrella without launching weapons programs. Existing NATO nuclear-sharing arrangements involve only US-owned warheads under alliance control, not independent acquisition. Nuclear development timelines historically require years from decision to capability, and no recent official announcements, legislative actions, or technical milestones indicate accelerated timelines among treaty allies that could shift the near-term outlook.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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