Stalled Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations underpin the 93.5% trader consensus against a national referendum passing before 2027. U.S.-brokered talks in early 2026 produced no agreement on territorial concessions or security guarantees, with Russia rejecting proposed frameworks and holding to maximalist demands. By mid-July the Kremlin stated there were no immediate prospects for resuming talks. Ukraine’s constitution and martial law require a prior ceasefire and viable deal before any nationwide vote, a sequence that itself would consume months. Ongoing hostilities and the absence of recent diplomatic progress leave insufficient time for agreement, legislative preparations, and referendum passage within the remaining window.