Ongoing U.S. and European mediation efforts since 2025 have produced temporary ceasefires and prisoner exchanges but no territorial agreement or security guarantees acceptable to both sides, leaving core disputes over Donbas, Crimea, and NATO alignment unresolved. Ukrainian martial law remains extended through October 2026, blocking national votes, while public polling shows strong resistance to major concessions. Recent bilateral contacts, including Zelenskyy’s August discussions with European leaders, have yielded no breakthrough or referendum timeline. Traders price these structural barriers and stalled diplomacy as making passage of any peace referendum before 2027 highly improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUkraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
5% chance
$62,733 Vol.
$62,733 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$62,733 Vol.
$62,733 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing U.S. and European mediation efforts since 2025 have produced temporary ceasefires and prisoner exchanges but no territorial agreement or security guarantees acceptable to both sides, leaving core disputes over Donbas, Crimea, and NATO alignment unresolved. Ukrainian martial law remains extended through October 2026, blocking national votes, while public polling shows strong resistance to major concessions. Recent bilateral contacts, including Zelenskyy’s August discussions with European leaders, have yielded no breakthrough or referendum timeline. Traders price these structural barriers and stalled diplomacy as making passage of any peace referendum before 2027 highly improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 4:52 PM ET
Volume
$62,733End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing U.S. and European mediation efforts since 2025 have produced temporary ceasefires and prisoner exchanges but no territorial agreement or security guarantees acceptable to both sides, leaving core disputes over Donbas, Crimea, and NATO alignment unresolved. Ukrainian martial law remains extended through October 2026, blocking national votes, while public polling shows strong resistance to major concessions. Recent bilateral contacts, including Zelenskyy’s August discussions with European leaders, have yielded no breakthrough or referendum timeline. Traders price these structural barriers and stalled diplomacy as making passage of any peace referendum before 2027 highly improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$62,733End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S. and European mediation efforts since 2025 have produced temporary ceasefires and prisoner exchanges but no territorial agreement or security guarantees acceptable to both sides, leaving core disputes over Donbas, Crimea, and NATO alignment unresolved. Ukrainian martial law remains extended through October 2026, blocking national votes, while public polling shows strong resistance to major concessions. Recent bilateral contacts, including Zelenskyy’s August discussions with European leaders, have yielded no breakthrough or referendum timeline. Traders price these structural barriers and stalled diplomacy as making passage of any peace referendum before 2027 highly improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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