Putin maintains firm control over Russia's security services, military command, and political institutions, with no verified elite defections or organized challenges emerging despite earlier 2026 intelligence reports on tightened Kremlin security measures and concerns tied to figures like Sergei Shoigu. These May reports of potential plots prompted heightened protections but produced no subsequent actions or public fractures, consistent with the regime's historical pattern of suppressing dissent and maintaining centralized authority through the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Traders price the low likelihood of a coup attempt this year at around 7 percent for Yes, reflecting the absence of structural openings for such an event before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$118,197 Vol.
$118,197 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$118,197 Vol.
$118,197 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin maintains firm control over Russia's security services, military command, and political institutions, with no verified elite defections or organized challenges emerging despite earlier 2026 intelligence reports on tightened Kremlin security measures and concerns tied to figures like Sergei Shoigu. These May reports of potential plots prompted heightened protections but produced no subsequent actions or public fractures, consistent with the regime's historical pattern of suppressing dissent and maintaining centralized authority through the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Traders price the low likelihood of a coup attempt this year at around 7 percent for Yes, reflecting the absence of structural openings for such an event before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$118,197End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin maintains firm control over Russia's security services, military command, and political institutions, with no verified elite defections or organized challenges emerging despite earlier 2026 intelligence reports on tightened Kremlin security measures and concerns tied to figures like Sergei Shoigu. These May reports of potential plots prompted heightened protections but produced no subsequent actions or public fractures, consistent with the regime's historical pattern of suppressing dissent and maintaining centralized authority through the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Traders price the low likelihood of a coup attempt this year at around 7 percent for Yes, reflecting the absence of structural openings for such an event before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$118,197End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Putin maintains firm control over Russia's security services, military command, and political institutions, with no verified elite defections or organized challenges emerging despite earlier 2026 intelligence reports on tightened Kremlin security measures and concerns tied to figures like Sergei Shoigu. These May reports of potential plots prompted heightened protections but produced no subsequent actions or public fractures, consistent with the regime's historical pattern of suppressing dissent and maintaining centralized authority through the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Traders price the low likelihood of a coup attempt this year at around 7 percent for Yes, reflecting the absence of structural openings for such an event before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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