Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine continues to absorb the bulk of its conventional forces, with Russian troops recording only incremental advances amid Ukrainian long-range strikes on energy and military targets deep inside Russia. President Putin’s September 11 statements explicitly denied any intention to threaten European states and framed potential European troop deployments in Ukraine as a red line rather than a pretext for new offensives. Western assessments note sustained hybrid activity and possible limited provocations near NATO borders but highlight the absence of large-scale troop concentrations or logistical preparations required for a conventional invasion of additional countries. These factors underpin the market’s strong “No” consensus, reflecting Russia’s stretched resources and repeated official signals prioritizing the existing conflict through the remainder of 2026.