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Hezbollah predictions & odds

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Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by...?

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by...?

34%

April 26

$1M Vol.

$232K today

$52.8K Liq.

568

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?

9%

May 31

$86.9K Vol.

$62.8K Liq.

15

Ends in about 1 month

Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?

Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?

7%

May 31

$19.6K Vol.

$23.0K Liq.

6

Ends in about 1 month

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

12%

June 30

$357K Vol.

$70.9K Liq.

12

Ends in about 1 month

Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?

Israeli forces enter Beirut by...?

2%

April 30

$166K Vol.

$29.4K Liq.

3

Ends in 4 days

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?

42%

$485K Vol.

$40.0K Liq.

115

Ends in 2 months

Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by...?

Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by...?

10%

April 30

$28.4K Vol.

$19.1K Liq.

Ends in 4 days

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

28%

December 31

$1M Vol.

$29.2K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

42%

December 31

$4M Vol.

$232K today

$196K Liq.

98

Ends in 8 months

Iran military action against ___ by April 30?

Iran military action against ___ by April 30?

21%

Bahrain

$5M Vol.

$75.5K today

$366K Liq.

1

Ends in 4 days

What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?

What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?

8%

Abqaiq oil processing facility

$515K Vol.

$237K Liq.

Ends in 4 days

How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?

How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?

61%

10+

$229K Vol.

$36.0K Liq.

Ends in 4 days

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

15%

June 30, 2026

$712K Vol.

$48.0K Liq.

44

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

8%

Amal Movement (Amal)

$502K Vol.

$278K Liq.

12

Ends in about 1 month

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (Apr 27 - May 3)

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (Apr 27 - May 3)

95%

Donald / Trump

$394 Vol.

$3.0K Liq.

Ends in 7 days

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

14%

June 30

$240K Vol.

$164K Liq.

5

Ends in 2 months

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

28%

$139K Vol.

$28.6K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Israel false flag attack confirmed?

Israel false flag attack confirmed?

-

$1 Vol.

$141 Liq.

Ends in 4 days

Khamenei # posts April 21 - April 28, 2026?

Khamenei # posts April 21 - April 28, 2026?

30%

<5

$2.3K Vol.

$1.5K Liq.

Ends in 3 days

Khamenei # posts April 28 - May 5, 2026?

Khamenei # posts April 28 - May 5, 2026?

41%

35-39

$154 Vol.

$1.3K Liq.

Ends in 10 days

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Hezbollah.

Polymarket currently hosts 117 active markets for Hezbollah that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by...?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $14.7M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Iran military action against ___ by April 30?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Iran military action against ___ by April 30?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 100% chance to Israel. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Hezbollah predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.