The U.S. Embassy in Beirut has operated under ordered departure status since early 2026, with non-emergency personnel and family members relocated amid the Iran conflict that began February 28 and parallel Israel-Hezbollah fighting in southern Lebanon. Recent State Department assessments and internal planning documents now point to the first staff returns to Beirut, starting as early as late August 2026 at reduced (85 percent) levels, signaling lower near-term escalation risks following U.S.-Iran cease-fire arrangements and U.S.-brokered Lebanon-Israel framework talks. Persistent factors include ongoing Israeli strikes, Hezbollah activity, Lebanese army deployment challenges in pilot zones, and the embassy’s “do not travel” advisory. Scheduled September negotiations and any new missile or border incidents could shift security posture and staffing decisions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by...?
$118,056 Vol.
December 31
5%
$118,056 Vol.
December 31
5%
A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. Embassy in Beirut has operated under ordered departure status since early 2026, with non-emergency personnel and family members relocated amid the Iran conflict that began February 28 and parallel Israel-Hezbollah fighting in southern Lebanon. Recent State Department assessments and internal planning documents now point to the first staff returns to Beirut, starting as early as late August 2026 at reduced (85 percent) levels, signaling lower near-term escalation risks following U.S.-Iran cease-fire arrangements and U.S.-brokered Lebanon-Israel framework talks. Persistent factors include ongoing Israeli strikes, Hezbollah activity, Lebanese army deployment challenges in pilot zones, and the embassy’s “do not travel” advisory. Scheduled September negotiations and any new missile or border incidents could shift security posture and staffing decisions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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